Jurien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macro, has turned bearish on bitcoin, predicting a year-long downturn in 2026 after the cryptocurrency's recent peak. He points to historical four-year cycles aligning closely with bitcoin's October high near $125,000. In contrast, Timmer highlights gold's robust bull market performance throughout 2025.
Jurien Timmer, a longtime bitcoin advocate and Fidelity's director of global macro, has shifted to a more cautious stance on the cryptocurrency. In a recent post on X, he argued that bitcoin's bull run may have concluded, based on its alignment with past four-year halving cycles in both price and timing.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of around $125,000 in October, after approximately 145 months of cumulative rallying. This peak fits the pattern observed in previous cycles, according to Timmer. He anticipates that bitcoin bear markets, known as 'winters,' typically endure for about a year, suggesting 2026 could serve as a 'year off' for the asset. Key support levels are expected between $65,000 and $75,000.
"While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four year cycle halving phase, both in price and time," Timmer wrote. He further explained, "If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect. Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a year off for bitcoin. Support is at $65,000 to $75,000."
Timmer drew a stark comparison with gold, which has enjoyed a strong year in 2025, rising roughly 65% year-to-date and surpassing global money supply growth. During its recent correction, gold retained most of its gains, a sign of its ongoing bull market strength. He does not foresee an immediate reversal in the performance gap between the two assets.
This outlook comes amid bitcoin's current price around $88,157, reflecting recent weakness after the October surge.
