Japan projects primary balance surplus in FY2026 budget, first since 1998

Following the Cabinet's approval of a record ¥122.3 trillion fiscal 2026 budget, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a projected primary balance surplus—the first in 28 years—highlighting progress toward long-term fiscal health amid high debt concerns.

Japan's primary balance, which measures revenue against spending excluding debt-servicing costs, is set to return to surplus in fiscal 2026 for the first time since 1998, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated on Friday. This comes after the Cabinet approved the ¥122.3 trillion ($782 billion) initial budget, as detailed in prior coverage.

Takaichi emphasized that the budget balances economic growth with fiscal sustainability: "I believe we have put together a budget that strikes a balance between achieving a strong economy and ensuring fiscal sustainability."

The announcement addresses market concerns over Japan's debt levels—the highest among developed nations—and Takaichi's expansionary spending. Achieving this surplus aligns with over two decades of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) goals under her leadership, though sustained improvements will depend on economic challenges like inflation and yen weakness.

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Japanese lawmakers in the Diet approving 8.56 trillion yen stopgap budget amid upper house delays, realistic news illustration.
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Japan approves 8.56 trillion yen stopgap budget for fiscal 2026 amid upper house delays

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The Japanese government approved an 8.56 trillion yen stopgap budget on March 27 to fund operations for the first 11 days of fiscal 2026 starting April 1, due to stalled upper house deliberations on the main 122.31 trillion yen budget passed by the lower house earlier this month. This is the first such provisional measure in 11 years, backed by ruling and main opposition parties, and expected to pass parliament on March 30.

Japan's House of Representatives passed the fiscal 2026 budget proposal on March 14, supported by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party's majority, sending it to the House of Councillors. The budget totals a record 122.3 trillion yen, drawing criticism from opposition parties over the short deliberation time. The ruling coalition aims for passage by the fiscal year-end despite uncertainties in the upper house.

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Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said Friday that Japan's initial budget for defense spending and related costs in fiscal 2026 totals about 10.6 trillion yen ($66.5 billion), roughly 1.9 percent of its 2022 gross domestic product or around 1.5 percent using projected fiscal 2026 GDP. Japan aims to raise spending to 2 percent of GDP by fiscal 2027.

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