Argentina's country risk drops below 510 basis points

Argentina's country risk indicator, compiled by JP Morgan, closed at 504 basis points on Monday, February 9, 2026, following a recovery day for sovereign bonds. The drop was driven by gains in dollar-denominated public securities and a stable exchange environment. The Central Bank built reserves exceeding 45 billion dollars.

Argentina's country risk recorded a notable decline on Monday, February 9, 2026, closing at 504 basis points according to JP Morgan and Rava Bursátil data. The indicator started the session at 512 points and hit an intraday low of 501 before stabilizing. This movement marks one of the month's largest drops, driven by gains of up to 1.3% in dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, such as the Globales 2046.

The financial day was marked by a fall in dollar quotations and foreign currency purchases by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), which raised net reserves above 45 billion dollars. These elements improved the risk perception of local assets in international markets, with Argentine ADRs on Wall Street rising up to 7.1%.

Over the past week, the country risk showed moderate volatility above 500 points. On Wednesday, February 4, it stood at 502 points, while on Friday, February 6, it closed at 512. At the end of January, it had dipped below 500 points near 474, but external factors like nervousness in technology and artificial intelligence companies caused a rebound. Analysts note that fiscal discipline and currency accumulation curbed upward pressure.

The country risk, measured as the interest rate spread between Argentine bonds and U.S. Treasuries, gauges debt default perceptions. Levels above 500 points raise financing costs for public and private sectors. Stable countries like Uruguay keep indicators below 150 points, and a reduction in Argentina would ease credit access and investments.

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Illustration depicting Argentina's country risk dropping below 500 points for the first time in eight years, with rising reserves and investor optimism.
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Argentina's country risk breaks below 500 points after eight years

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Argentina's country risk indicator dropped to 494 basis points on January 27, 2026, its lowest level since May 2018, driven by rising sovereign bonds and the central bank's reserve accumulation. This decline signals growing investor optimism about the country's fiscal solvency. International reserves approach 46 billion dollars after daily net purchases.

Argentina's country risk, as measured by JP Morgan, closed on Monday, January 26, 2026, at 513 basis points, its lowest level since mid-2018. This 2.5% drop from Friday stems from the Central Bank's reserve accumulation exceeding US$1 billion in January. Markets view these developments as signs of improved financial solvency.

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Argentina's Country Risk closed on Thursday, February 19, 2026, at 524 basis points, up from the previous close of 515 points. This rise occurred amid a decline in dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, both locally and on Wall Street. The JP Morgan-measured indicator highlights market volatility and focus on the country's public accounts.

Economist Alejandro Barros explained that stabilizing the exchange rate and increasing the peso's role in Argentina's economy will further reduce country risk. Barros stated that eliminating distortive exchange rates is key to this trend. The government celebrates the current drop but prioritizes reserve accumulation before returning to debt markets.

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Argentina's blue dollar closed on Monday, January 26, 2026, up $5, trading at $1,470 for buying and $1,490 for selling. Other exchange variants also moved, while the official dollar stayed at $1,410-$1,460 per Banco Nación. The country risk reached 513 basis points, the lowest in the Milei era.

The dollar blue closed lower on Friday, January 9, 2026, reaching 1,505 pesos for selling, while the official dollar at Banco Nación stood at 1,490 pesos for selling. Other financial quotes like MEP, CCL, and crypto showed slight variations. In Córdoba, official rates matched the national ones.

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The Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina announced that starting January 1, 2026, it will apply a new methodology to calculate the Reference Exchange Rate. This update aims to improve the transparency and representativeness of the indicator, based on actual operations rather than quotes. The change was approved following a public consultation launched in November 2025.

 

 

 

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