Following initial US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, weekend attacks reportedly killed Ayatollah Ali Jamenei, prompting Iran's Revolutionary Guard to threaten closing the Strait of Hormuz. Mexico's export mix hit $66.63 per barrel on March 2—the highest in seven months—as global markets reacted with risk aversion; Mexico activated a gasoline price contingency plan.
The conflict intensified over the March 1-2 weekend with US and Israeli strikes killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Jamenei and other officials, per analysts like Gabriela Siller of Banco Base. Iran's Revolutionary Guard retaliated by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for 20-30% of global seaborne oil trade—and announced: “We will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region. We will set fire to any ship that tries to cross.”
The Guard attacked the tanker 'Athens Nova' with drones and launched 26 drones plus 5 ballistic missiles at Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, and the strait. Casualties include 10 deaths in Israel and over 550 in Iran (Red Crescent); Israel denied attacks on Netanyahu's office as propaganda.
Oil prices surged: Mexico's export mix rose 5% to $66.63/bbl (from $63.46), WTI up 6.28-6.43% to $71.23-71.33, Brent up 7.27-8.32% to $78.17-78.95. Experts like Jorge León (Rystad Energy) see Brent potentially rising another $20 if disruptions last 1-2 weeks; Neil Crosby (Sparta) warns of supply chain hits.
Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a Finance Secretariat plan to cut IEPS tax (currently 6.7001 pesos/liter Magna, 5.6579 Premium, 7.3634 diesel) to shield gasoline prices and inflation. Markets turned risk-averse: peso at 17.2853/USD (-0.31%), Dow -1.06%, Nasdaq -0.99%, S&P 500 -0.43%, VIX +20%, with drops in Europe/Asia and emerging currencies.
Sheinbaum stated no immediate issues and plans Finance talks.
