The 2027 presidential election risks becoming a referendum on Europe

The European Union faces growing unpopularity in France, potentially turning the 2027 presidential election into a vote for or against Europe, as outlined in a Le Monde column by Françoise Fressoz. Pro-European parties struggle to reach voters amid voices like Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Only 38 percent of French people hold a positive view of the EU, according to a recent survey.

Françoise Fressoz, an editorialist at Le Monde, highlights in her column that the European Union's unpopularity in France fuels extremist politics. This could turn the 2027 presidential election into a referendum on Europe, even as the need for European protection has never been greater.

Representatives of pro-European parties struggle to reach the popular electorate, facing the tribune power of Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. A portion of the Republican right now challenges the supremacy of certain European treaties over national law, similar to the Rassemblement national. France, a founding member of the EU, is experiencing a deep crisis in this regard.

According to the Eurobarometer survey published on February 4, only 38 percent of French people maintain a positive image of European integration, and 53 percent view EU membership as 'a good thing,' compared to a 62 percent European average. The 17th wave of the Political Trust Barometer by OpinionWay shows that just 9 percent of French respondents believe more powers should be given to the EU to solve France's problems. This national withdrawal trend is more pronounced than in Italy, Germany, or the United Kingdom.

Fressoz notes that some arguments against the euro have proven unfounded. Contrary to Philippe Séguin's fears in 1992 during the Maastricht referendum, the single currency did not negate politics. Similarly, France did not submit to the 'German ordoliberalism' criticized by Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 2005. The euro prevented humiliating devaluations of the franc and allowed France to sustain a generous and deficit-prone social system, unique in Europe. As a result, returning to the franc is no longer a priority for either the RN or La France insoumise.

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Crowd of protesters in Paris symbolizing widespread dissatisfaction with French democracy and national decline, as revealed by the Fractures françaises survey.
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Thirteenth wave of Fractures françaises reveals heightened democratic crisis

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The thirteenth edition of the annual 'Fractures françaises' survey, conducted by Ipsos for Le Monde, highlights growing distrust in French democracy. Nearly 96% of French people say they are dissatisfied or angry about the country's situation, with 90% believing the nation is in decline. This political instability, marked by governmental crises, strengthens the sense of dysfunction.

Confronted with debt, environmental crisis, and insecurity, many French people feel the state is no longer up to the challenges. Some would accept an authoritarian leader to prevent collapse, even at the cost of democracy. Donald Trump’s election has served as a shock for some.

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Only 22% of French people trust politics, according to the 17th wave of the Cevipof barometer, a figure far below that of European neighbors. This disarray stems from 18 months without a majority in the National Assembly, fostering a sense of democratic inefficiency. Ahead of the March 2026 municipal elections, French voters remain committed to voting despite their doubts.

Sébastien Lecornu's government survived two no-confidence motions in the National Assembly on Thursday, backed by the Socialist Party in exchange for suspending pension reform. The La France Insoumise motion failed by 18 votes, with 271 in favor against 289 needed. The National Rally motion garnered only 144 votes.

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The European Parliament is voicing growing concerns over US interferences, including sanctions against figures like Thierry Breton and Judge Nicolas Guillou. A special commission led by Nathalie Loiseau plans a session on the issue. At the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen appears to be looking the other way.

In an interview with Le Monde, political science professor Carole Bachelot reviews 2025, marked by the fragility of successive governments, lengthy budget negotiations, and the incarceration of a former president. She attributes the instability less to a conflictual culture than to the centrality of the presidential election. The expert assesses the situation of the Macron camp, the right, and the left amid debates over the 2026 budget.

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In Lyon, deputies and senators are actively intervening in the March 2026 mayoral race, blurring lines between national mandates and local campaigning. Left-wing lawmakers are rallying to counter candidate Jean-Michel Aulas and bolster outgoing mayor Grégory Doucet's tarnished image. On the right, Senator Étienne Blanc is stirring discord.

 

 

 

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