The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, the PGA Tour's third Signature Event, begins Thursday, March 5-8, at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the clear betting favorite at +310 (FanDuel) to +350 across sportsbooks, headlining a 72-player field including the top 10 in the Official World Golf Ranking. Rory McIlroy (+900 to +1000) and defending champion Russell Henley (+3000) are among the top contenders at the $20 million par-72 layout.
Following many top players' skips at last week's Cognizant Classic, this selective field precedes the Players Championship (120 players). Play tees off at 7:40 a.m. ET on the 7,466-7,500-yard Dick Wilson/Joe Lee design—refined by Palmer—with narrow fairways, Bermudagrass greens, 84 bunkers, water on nine holes, thick rough, and more 200+ yard approaches than any regular Tour stop. Four par-5s reward precise irons and short games; winds of 10-15 mph and thunderstorms are possible, with past winners often over par. Winner earns $4 million, 700 FedExCup points, exemptions into The Players through 2028, and Palmer's red cardigan.
Scheffler, a two-time winner (2022, 2024) with four straight top-4s here, enters despite recent T4 and T12 West Coast finishes. Fantasy analyst Rob Bolton calls him 'the top dog' and a captaincy pick for Bay Hill's predictability. McIlroy (2018 champ, six top-10s in 11 starts) eyes a second win after T2 at Genesis. Other contenders: Tommy Fleetwood (+1750 to +2000, scrambling/long irons ace), Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200), Collin Morikawa (+2500, post-Pebble win, seeking redemption), Xander Schauffele (+2500), Henley (2025 winner via eagle chip-in, three top-20s this year), Kurt Kitayama (2023 champ), and model picks like Si Woo Kim (+2700, recent T2/T3) while fading Schauffele (poor history, T40 last year). SportsLine (10,000 sims, 16 majors nailed) backs Kim. Shane Lowry eyes rebound, Robert MacIntyre (links fit), Viktor Hovland (tee tweaks).
Storylines: Justin Thomas's season debut post-November 2025 microdiscectomy (tees with Hideki Matsuyama), Sungjae Im post-wrist injury. 36-hole cut to top 50/ties or within 10 strokes sets up the Florida Swing penultimate before $25M Players.
Coverage: Thursday PGA Tour Live (ESPN+ 7:30 a.m. ET), Golf Channel (2-6 p.m.); weekends NBC/Peacock.
