Argentina's country risk rises to 515 points after bond decline

Argentina's country risk rose 0.78% on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, closing at 515 basis points. The increase aligned with a general decline in local sovereign bonds, as the market absorbed domestic and international financial contexts.

The index compiled by JP Morgan, known as the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), measured Argentina's country risk at 515 basis points at the close of trading on February 18, 2026. This represented an increase of four units from the previous day, when it had closed at 511 points, interrupting a slight downward trend.

During the session, the indicator opened at 509 points and reached a high of 515 units, stabilizing at that level. The upward movement was driven by the negative performance of sovereign bonds: Bonares fell up to 0.80%, while Globals recorded an average decline of 0.60%.

Over the past week, the country risk showed an irregular evolution, staying near 500 points. On February 11 it was at 506 points, rose to 514 on the 12th, reached 519 on the 13th and held at that level until the 16th, before dropping to 511 on the 17th. The rebound to 515 reflects sensitivity to internal factors, such as the 3.3% drop in the S&P Merval index, and external ones, like uncertainty in the global technology sector.

Market analysts, such as Alexander Londoño from ActivTrades, have noted that a country risk around 500 points is consistent with an improvement scenario. However, the index remains above the lows recorded at the end of January, when it reached 493 units.

The country risk measures the difference in interest rates between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds, expressed in basis points. An increase indicates a higher perception of default risk, making financing more expensive for the state and companies.

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Argentina's country risk indicator dropped to 494 basis points on January 27, 2026, its lowest level since May 2018, driven by rising sovereign bonds and the central bank's reserve accumulation. This decline signals growing investor optimism about the country's fiscal solvency. International reserves approach 46 billion dollars after daily net purchases.

Argentina's Country Risk closed on Thursday, February 19, 2026, at 524 basis points, up from the previous close of 515 points. This rise occurred amid a decline in dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, both locally and on Wall Street. The JP Morgan-measured indicator highlights market volatility and focus on the country's public accounts.

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Argentina's country risk closed on Thursday, February 5, 2026, at 516 basis points, up 14 units from the previous day, amid global volatility and the arrival of an IMF mission. Argentine assets on Wall Street fell up to 8.5%, while sovereign bonds showed mixed results. Experts attribute the rise mainly to international factors rather than local deteriorations.

Economist Alejandro Barros explained that stabilizing the exchange rate and increasing the peso's role in Argentina's economy will further reduce country risk. Barros stated that eliminating distortive exchange rates is key to this trend. The government celebrates the current drop but prioritizes reserve accumulation before returning to debt markets.

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Argentina's blue dollar closed on Monday, January 26, 2026, up $5, trading at $1,470 for buying and $1,490 for selling. Other exchange variants also moved, while the official dollar stayed at $1,410-$1,460 per Banco Nación. The country risk reached 513 basis points, the lowest in the Milei era.

Argentina's Central Bank released its latest Market Expectations Survey, drawing from 45 analysts' projections, estimating 2.4% inflation for January 2026 and a dollar rate of $1,475 in February.

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Argentina's domestic consumption ended 2025 with a slight 1.3% uptick during the Christmas holidays, according to Salvador Femenia, CAME's Press Secretary. Yet, formal employment has lost over 240,000 jobs since Milei's government began, with ongoing challenges in reserves and exchange stability. Experts like Roberto Rojas emphasize the need to accumulate dollars to meet 2026 debt maturities.

 

 

 

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