Amid Cuba's economic and fuel crisis, Senator Marco Rubio will lead US negotiations demanding an end to the dictatorship, according to expert analysis. President Miguel Díaz-Canel announced no oil shipments since December, linked to Donald Trump's pressure on Russia and Mexico. While discrepancies exist over bilateral talks, consensus suggests any solution will require deep political reforms.
Cuba's economy is in a catastrophic state, with President Miguel Díaz-Canel announcing no fuel deliveries since December, meaning neither Russia nor Mexico supplied oil in January. This stems from Donald Trump's directives to halt shipments, as Trump stated amid a dispute with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who denied discussing Cuba.
On potential US-Cuba negotiations, Trump claims talks are underway, but Cuba's Foreign Ministry (MINREX) refutes this, acknowledging only routine technical discussions. The newspaper ABC reports meetings in Mexico City last week, attended by Alejandro Castro Espín, son of Raúl Castro, and senior US CIA officials, with Mexican oversight. Historically, such contacts have been common since 1959, as chronicled in 'Back Channel to Cuba' by William LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh. The 2014-2015 thaw involved similar exchanges between Castro Espín and Ben Rhodes in Canada, mediated by Pope Francis.
Analyst Jorge Castañeda argues that, given the crisis's severity, Rubio will reject minor economic reforms as accepted previously. Instead, demands will include freeing all over 1,000 political prisoners, a timeline for elections, press and political party freedoms, and suspending the current Constitution's single-party provision. Castañeda notes Cuba declined Obama's gradual opening proposal, leaving scant alternatives now. For ordinary Cubans facing shortages of food, medicine, and electricity, these terms might seem a viable trade-off despite their stringency.
