Morgan Stanley's Ninth Annual Swiss Watch Report, released on February 18, 2026, reveals a concentrated Swiss watch market with declining unit shipments but stable export values. The report highlights the dominance of a few major brands and the growing importance of ultra-high-end watches. It estimates Swiss watch exports at CHF 24.4 billion for 2025, down 1.7% from the previous year.
The report details that Switzerland exported 14.6 million watches in 2025, marking a multi-decade low and a 51% decline from the 2011 peak of 29.8 million units. This includes 9.4 million quartz watches and 5.2 million mechanical ones, with total units down 4.8% year-over-year. Despite the volume drop, export value for wrist and finished watches reached CHF 24.4 billion, a 1.7% decrease from 2024 but still above 2019 levels, according to data from the Fédération de l’Industrie Horlogère (FHS).
Market concentration has intensified, with four brands—Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, and Omega—accounting for 55% of total industry sales, up from 52.4% in 2024. Among privately owned brands, Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille hold 49.1% market share, gaining 220 basis points year-over-year and 1,240 basis points since 2019. The report estimates the industry's profit pool at CHF 7.9 billion, with these four private brands capturing 76% at a 33% operating margin, while listed groups like Swatch Group, Richemont, and LVMH take 18% at 10% margins.
Growth is driven by high-end segments, where watches priced above CHF 50,000 represent 37% of export value and 89% of 2025 growth, despite comprising only 1.4% of units. Brand-specific figures show Rolex leading with CHF 11.002 billion in wholesale sales, 1.15 million units, and an average selling price of CHF 14,000, up 6% year-over-year. Cartier follows with CHF 3.488 billion in sales and 695,000 units, holding 8.7% market share. Audemars Piguet reported CHF 2.6 billion in revenues, up 9%, becoming the third-largest by turnover, with the Royal Oak line accounting for 88% of sales. Patek Philippe achieved CHF 2.5 billion, up 9%, with 72,000 units produced.
The report notes Omega's stagnation at around CHF 2.2 billion for over a decade, dropping to fifth place. Jacob & Co. grew fastest, with revenues up 14% to CHF 180 million and units up 24%. The number of brands exceeding CHF 1 billion in sales fell to six, as Longines declined 18% to CHF 920 million. Overall, the analysis portrays an industry shifting toward fewer units, higher prices, and control by a handful of players.