Bob Baffert-trained Potente won the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday at 8-1 odds in his second career start, propelling him to No. 7 in the NTRA 3-year-old rankings. This upset, along with other recent wins by lightly raced horses, has reshuffled contention for the May 2 Kentucky Derby. Potente is now the 15-1 fifth choice in Derby future wagering.
The San Felipe Stakes, a key Kentucky Derby prep, saw Potente deliver an 8-1 surprise victory at Santa Anita on Saturday, marking his second career start. Trained by Bob Baffert, the 3-year-old's win has elevated him to No. 7 in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association's rankings for 3-year-olds. He enters the latest round of Derby future wagering as the 15-1 fifth choice, behind Paladin at 5-1, Commandment at 6-1, Nearly at 8-1, and Chief Wallabee at 10-1.
This result is part of a trend of upsets by lightly raced horses shaking up Derby contention. The Puma won the Tampa Bay Derby at 7-1 as a maiden in his third start. Class President took the Rebel Stakes in Arkansas at 8-1 in his third race, jumping to No. 4 in rankings. Great White won the Battaglia at 15-1 in his third outing. Other notable performers include Commandment, winner of the Fountain of Youth in his fourth start; Iron Honor, Gotham victor in his second; Reagan’s Honor, a runaway allowance winner in Louisiana in his third; and Baffert’s Cherokee Nation, who broke his maiden on his sixth try at Santa Anita.
The current NTRA top three remain Paladin, the only double graded-stakes winner; Commandment; and Nearly. However, the top 10 now features five horses not in the top 20 at the start of February: Class President (No. 4), Silent Tactic (5), Renegade (6), Potente (7), and The Puma (8).
Future wagering opened Friday and closes Sunday at 3 p.m., challenging bettors to assess these recent steppingstone winners. The Derby trail may stabilize with major preps starting next week, including the April 4 Santa Anita Derby. Meanwhile, speed figures for recent Santa Anita events were low: Potente’s San Felipe earned a Beyer of 89 and Equibase of 94, both records lows for the race.
