Hacienda Secretary Édgar Amador estimated that the effects of the US-Iran conflict on fuel prices in Mexico will be short-lived, due to existing fiscal mechanisms. Meanwhile, premium gasoline and diesel exceed 30 pesos per liter in some stations, and the Mexican peso depreciates toward 18 units per dollar.
Hacienda and Public Credit Secretary Édgar Amador stated on Thursday, March 12, 2026, in Mexico City that the impacts of the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran on gasoline and diesel prices will be limited and short-term. "The mechanism exists, it is very clear, very transparent, and it activates by adjusting market variables," Amador said, referring to the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) implemented since 2019, which adjusts stimuli to prevent fuel price hikes. Additionally, an agreement ratified by President Claudia Sheinbaum with business leaders caps low-octane gasoline at 24 pesos per liter.
However, premium gasoline and diesel are not covered by this pact, leading to increases. According to PETROIntelligence, on March 12, premium reached 30.44 pesos per liter at a station in El Mante, Tamaulipas, a 14% rise since February 28, the conflict's start. Diesel hit 30 pesos in Urique, Chihuahua, with a national average of 27.827 pesos, up 6.1%. Alejandro Montufar, CEO of PETROIntelligence, explained that Pemex passed only 15% of the impact to regular gasoline but the full amount to diesel. Javier Díaz of GasGas Analytics noted that Mexico imports 60% of its gasoline, affected by international prices, exchange rates, and logistics.
The conflict, in its second week, includes Iranian attacks on oil tankers, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and halt of operations in Iraqi ports. Brent exceeded 100 dollars per barrel. This depreciated the Mexican peso to 17.8449 per dollar at close, down 0.99%, and 18.26 in bank windows. Gabriela Siller of Banco Base indicated upward pressures and potential food price impacts. BBVA estimates that over six weeks, Mexico would net 15 billion pesos from higher oil revenues, offsetting IEPS losses of 38 billion.
