Derivatives markets indicate that bitcoin could rise 14% to $80,000 by the end of June, according to analysis from Derive.xyz. This optimistic outlook persists amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. MicroStrategy has added to its holdings by purchasing $1.3 billion worth of bitcoin.
Bitcoin traders are showing increased optimism, with derivatives data suggesting the cryptocurrency could reach $80,000 by June's end. Nick Forster, founder of onchain options platform Derive.xyz, shared this forecast in an investor note. He noted that markets imply a 14% increase from prices near $70,000.
Forster attributed the stabilization to easing fears over the Iran conflict. "Crypto markets are beginning to stabilise as geopolitical tensions surrounding the ongoing conflict in Iran continue," he said. "Despite earlier fears of a catastrophic crash of the crypto markets, derivatives markets suggest those concerns may have been overstated."
The backdrop includes volatility from US and Israeli attacks on Iran starting February 27. US equities have declined, with the S&P 500 down 1.4% and the Dow 2.6% since then. Oil prices surged to $120 per barrel before falling below $90. A US Secretary of Energy social media post about escorting a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz was deleted, and reports indicate Iran is laying sea mines there. On Wednesday, 32 International Energy Agency members were set to vote on releasing crude from strategic reserves to curb oil prices.
Despite these pressures, bitcoin options skew has shifted from negative to positive, signaling reduced hedging against drops and more bets on upside. Selling of put options rose sharply last week, with seven of Deribit's top 10 trades being puts at strikes around $70,000 or higher.
Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, highlighted bitcoin's 4% gain on Wednesday while US indices fell over 1%. He pointed to three factors: an unwind of oversized short positions, exhaustion among long-term sellers, and bitcoin's 24/7 trading absorbing shocks before traditional markets open.
MicroStrategy bolstered its position on Monday, buying 17,994 bitcoin for $1.3 billion at an average $70,946 per coin. The firm now holds bitcoin worth about $56 billion at an average cost of $75,862. CEO Phong Le described their preferred stock as more stable than bitcoin, gold, the S&P 500, or investment-grade bonds.
As of recent trading, bitcoin stood at $69,541, down 2.3% in 24 hours.
