A Jefferies analysis found Tesla's robotaxis in Austin cheaper than Uber but with longer wait times and suboptimal routes. The firm noted most rides still require safety monitors. Meanwhile, Tesla has made no progress toward driverless approvals in California.
In a report dated Thursday, Jefferies analysts conducted rides in Austin, taking 19 on Uber—including 14 with Waymo—and 15 on Tesla robotaxis within operating zones. Tesla rides were offered at a 60% discount compared to UberX but underperformed on key metrics. Wait times were significantly longer, vehicles took suboptimal routes leading to extended trip times, and they struggled with pickup and drop-off locations.
Jefferies observed that most Tesla robotaxis still include a safety monitor in the front seat. The analysts wrote, “AVs currently rely on novelty, premium cars, and lower prices to capture share, all unsustainable tailwinds that could foreshadow a tougher road ahead.” They suggested a hybrid model combining autonomous vehicles and human drivers would provide the best experience.
Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black commented on X, noting 13 of 15 Tesla trips were supervised. He stated, “$TSLA shouldn’t trade at a 200x P/E if its fully autonomous ride hailing platform actually requires supervision. Safety monitors aren’t scalable.”
Tesla launched Model Y robotaxis in Austin in June 2025 with safety monitors; in January, a few operated without them. The company has about 500 such vehicles across the Bay Area and Austin, according to CEO Elon Musk in the fourth-quarter earnings call in late January. Musk emphasized a cautious approach to scaling.
In California, Tesla logged zero autonomous test miles in 2025, the sixth consecutive year, per Department of Motor Vehicles records. It holds only an entry-level permit requiring safety drivers and has not applied for further approvals needed for driverless operations. The state requires at least 50,000 miles of testing with a safety driver before advancing. Tesla's Bay Area service involves about 300 vehicles operated by human drivers using supervised Full Self-Driving software, resembling a chauffeur service rather than fully autonomous rides. In Austin, around 45 vehicles operate, with only a handful without safety monitors.
Waymo, by contrast, has logged over 13 million test miles and secured seven approvals from 2014 to 2023, now offering driverless rides in 10 markets.
