Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts most regions will enter an early dry season in April 2026, influenced by the end of a weak La Niña and potential El Niño.
Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts the 2026 dry season will arrive earlier than in normal years. BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani stated that the weak La Niña ended in February 2026, followed by a neutral phase until June 2026, with the ENSO index at -0.28. There is a 50-60 percent chance of a weak-to-moderate El Niño in the second half of the year, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain neutral throughout.
This shift is marked by winds changing from westerlies from Asia to easterlies from Australia. About 114 seasonal zones, or 16.3 percent of the area, will enter the dry season in April 2026, rising to 184 zones (26.3 percent) in May and 163 zones (23.3 percent) in June. Compared to normal conditions, 325 zones (46.5 percent) will experience an earlier dry season, 173 zones (24.7 percent) on schedule, and 72 zones (10.3 percent) later.
Regions facing an advanced early dry season include most of Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, southern and eastern Kalimantan, most of Sulawesi, Maluku, and parts of Papua. The peak dry season is forecasted for August 2026 in areas such as central-southern Sumatra, Central-East Java, most of Kalimantan and Sulawesi, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, and parts of Maluku and Papua. Other areas will peak in July, including parts of Sumatra, central-northern Kalimantan, Java, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, Maluku, and western Papua; and in September in parts of Lampung, Java, and East Nusa Tenggara.
Teuku Faisal Fathani emphasized the need to monitor the potential El Niño's impact on weather patterns.
