Ethereum's price has stalled below $2,000, trading at $1,980 after erasing recent gains. Technical indicators point to a potential decline to $1,500 before any recovery to $2,500. Waning demand in futures and ETF outflows are key factors driving this outlook.
On February 16, Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $1,980, significantly down from its all-time high of $4,960. The cryptocurrency has entered a technical bear market, having fallen 60% from its peak. Analysts note that ETH remains below key support levels, including all moving averages and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. It has also dipped under the strong pivot reverse level from the Murrey Math Lines.
The daily chart reveals a bearish pennant pattern, featuring a flagpole and a converging symmetrical triangle. A breakout is anticipated as the triangle lines near convergence, typically leading to further downside. The initial target for this bearish move is the psychological support at $1,500, slightly above last year's April low.
Supporting this view, a Polymarket poll indicates 72% odds of ETH reaching $1,500 this year. Demand indicators underscore the weakness: futures open interest has fallen to $23 billion, the lowest since 2024 and down from a high of nearly $70 billion. Spot Ethereum ETFs have seen outflows of over $326 million this month, marking the fourth consecutive month of net losses and totaling more than $2 billion over the past four months.
Despite these pressures, some positive developments persist. The staking queue has reached a record high, with the staking ratio hitting 30%. ETH supply on exchanges is at a record low, while transactions, fees, and active addresses have increased significantly. Ethereum continues to lead in the growing real-world asset tokenization sector.
These bearish elements currently outweigh the bullish signals, suggesting a retreat to $1,500 before any push toward $2,500.
