The determination of Idul Fitri 1447 Hijriyah in 2026 is predicted to differ between the government and Muhammadiyah. The Ministry of Religious Affairs estimates the holiday on March 21, while Muhammadiyah sets it on March 20. The difference stems from calculations of the crescent moon's position at the end of Ramadan.
The determination of the date for Idul Fitri 1447 H or 1 Syawal in 2026 is likely to differ again between the government through the Ministry of Religious Affairs (Kemenag) and the Islamic organization Muhammadiyah, similar to the start of Ramadan this year. Muhammadiyah has set Idul Fitri on March 20, 2026. Meanwhile, Kemenag estimates it could be a day later, on March 21, 2026.
Arsad Hidayat, Director of Islamic Religious Affairs and Sharia Development at Kemenag, stated this estimate when met after a discussion at the Kemenag office on Jalan MH Thamrin, Jakarta, on Monday (March 9, 2026). "It is estimated that Lebaran will be on the 21st," said Arsad.
The estimate is based on astronomical calculations of the crescent moon's position on 29 Ramadan 1447 H. According to Arsad, the moon's altitude in Indonesia is projected to remain low, around 0 to 3 degrees, with the highest in Aceh. The elongation is about 4 to 6 degrees.
Although the altitude in some areas approaches the requirements, the elongation does not meet the visibility criteria under MABIMS (Mechanism for the Astronomical Calculation of Islamic Calendar) standards. "Based on the hisab calculation, the hilal altitude is around 0 to 3 degrees... For elongation, around 4 to 6 degrees," explained Arsad. The MABIMS imkanur rukyat criteria requires a minimum elongation of 6.4 degrees, so the crescent is considered not yet visible.
Arsad emphasized that the official decision awaits the results of the isbat session scheduled for March 19, 2026. Kemenag's Director of Islamic Religious Affairs Arsad Hidayat also noted that hisab calculations show the end-of-Ramadan crescent position remains inadequate.
