Fewer congressional races are expected to be competitive in the upcoming fall elections, largely due to mid-decade redistricting efforts initiated by President Trump. This means over 90% of House seats will be decided in primaries with low voter turnout. Experts warn this gives outsized power to a small, unrepresentative group of voters.
The push for mid-decade redistricting, started by President Trump last year, has significantly decreased the number of competitive congressional districts ahead of the 2026 elections. According to David Wasserman, senior elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, only 18 out of 435 House races are rated as toss-ups, meaning less than 5% of Americans will decide control of the House. "Right now, we only rate 18 out of 435 races as toss ups, which means that less than 5% of Americans will truly be deciding who's in control of the House," Wasserman told NPR.
This trend builds on prior cycles where primary voters have dominated outcomes. The Unite America Institute reported that in 2024, just 7% of voters elected winners in 87% of U.S. House races. Nick Troiano, executive director of Unite America, described the situation as "the primary problem is bad and getting worse," predicting the least competitive midterm election in lifetimes and the least accountable Congress.
Specific actions include Trump's request to Texas lawmakers to redraw maps for five additional Republican-leaning seats. In response, California Democrats passed a ballot measure to create five more Democratic-favorable seats, bypassing the state's independent commission. States like North Carolina and Missouri have also redrawn maps, with Florida and Virginia potentially following.
Wasserman noted no clear partisan advantage from these changes, but they have "eviscerated the competitive range of districts." Including leaning races brings the total to 36 seats, under 10% of the House—down from 48 competitive races early in Trump's first term. New boundaries in California and Texas are key factors, making blue states bluer and red states redder.
Primary voters, who tend to be older, whiter, wealthier, more educated, and ideologically extreme, do not reflect the broader electorate, raising democratic concerns. Efforts to include independents vary: New Mexico now allows non-affiliated voters in primaries, but Louisiana and West Virginia have restricted access, and 17 states have closed or semi-closed systems. Ballot measures for nonpartisan primaries in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and Oregon failed in 2024.
Troiano advocates for reforms to boost participation, arguing that reduced competition will worsen dysfunction in Washington.
