Pro-Trump influencers on X are using odds from prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket to claim fraud in last Tuesday's Los Angeles mayoral election, despite no evidence of wrongdoing.
The claims focus on slow vote counting in the race, where mail ballots have delayed results. Influencers point to shifting betting odds as supposed proof of manipulation, though experts say these reflect only wager activity. One prominent voice is David Freeman, known online as Gunther Eagleman. He holds a paid partnership with Kalshi and posted content questioning whether California was cheating to sideline candidate Spencer Pratt. Kalshi has since asked Freeman and similar partners to remove the posts for violating company policies. Polymarket, Kalshi's offshore rival, has not responded to inquiries and allows comparable posts to remain online. NPR's Jude Joffe-Block noted that mail-in verification processes explain the delays, with later ballots historically favoring Democrats. Stephen Richer, former Maricopa County recorder, warned of broader risks. He said the trend signals intensified election denialism ahead of November's midterms.
