The Ministry of Finance published the Financial Plan for 2026, projecting 2.6% GDP growth and 5.8% inflation. The document estimates an average dollar rate of $3,801 and Brent barrel at US$59.2, though analysts warn of calculation errors and lack of concrete measures for fiscal cuts. The publication was delayed by more than a month compared to previous years.
The Ministry of Finance, led by Germán Ávila, presented the Financial Plan for 2026 on March 11, 2026, a key market document outlining President Gustavo Petro's administration's economic projections. The calculations are based on data up to February 23, 2026, excluding the impact of the Middle East conflict.
Key projections include 2.6% GDP growth, 5.8% inflation (0.7 percentage points above 2025), an average exchange rate of $3,801 closing at $3,915, 6.2% peso depreciation, Brent barrel at US$59.2, current account balance at -2.9%, and import growth of 6.5%, down from 10.1% in 2025.
On fiscal matters, the primary deficit rose to 3.5% of GDP in 2025, one of the highest levels in a century according to some analysts, though the ministry projects a correction to -2.1% in 2026 via a 1.7% GDP spending cut. The total Government National Central deficit would stand at 5.1% of GDP, a 1.2-point reduction from 2025. Net debt closed 2025 at 58.5% of GDP, raised to 61.3% due to the fiscal rule's escape clause.
Analysts voiced skepticism. Luis Fernando Mejía, CEO of Lumen Economic Intelligence, stated: “The primary balance adjustment relies on a 1.7% GDP spending cut. There are no concrete measures yet to give credibility to a cut of that size”. José Ignacio López, president of Anif, added: “The cut is desirable, but it's unclear how it will be done in the coming months, unless it's a ‘legacy’ cut for the next administration”.
Diego Montañez-Herrera from Universidad Eafit noted the deficit to finance would be $102 trillion, covered by $128 trillion in debt, amid rising rates. Germán Machado from Universidad de los Andes pointed to calculation errors: “The document has calculation errors: they did not correctly convert trillions to GDP points. Therefore, it is unreliable and underestimates the 2026 deficit by 0.5% of GDP”.
The publication was delayed 32 days compared to 2019, more than in the pandemic year, due to the suspension of the economic emergency declared in December 2025. The Universidad Javeriana Fiscal Observatory noted the three-point GDP adjustment appears ambitious for a governmental transition year.
