Foreign inflows into Indian bonds slow after June surge

Foreign inflows into Indian government securities have begun to slow following a strong June increase tied to index inclusion hopes. Narrowing yield spreads with the US and concerns about the rupee are key factors behind the shift.

Investors are reassessing rupee-denominated assets as the appeal of high-yielding Indian bonds diminishes. The moderation comes after a surge in June driven by expectations around Bloomberg index inclusion.

Yield spreads between India and the US have narrowed, reducing the relative attraction for overseas buyers. Additional worries include potential rupee weakness and delays in index decisions.

The Reserve Bank of India continues to monitor these capital flows amid the changing market conditions.

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Illustration of Indian markets declining due to geopolitical tensions with Iran, showing traders and falling financial indicators.
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Indian markets and rupee decline as Trump signals end of Iran truce

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Indian stocks and the rupee fell sharply on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump signaled the end of a truce with Iran. Fresh US strikes on Iran and rising oil prices triggered the selloff. Gold and silver prices also extended losses in Mumbai trading.

Overseas investors have invested a record ₹39,640 crore in Indian government bonds during June so far. The inflows follow tax exemptions and expanded access to sovereign debt. These steps are intended to increase foreign participation in the market.

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Foreign portfolio investors are directing record amounts into India's government securities this month following recent policy adjustments.

India is set to reapply for inclusion in major global bond indices after introducing tax exemptions for foreign investors. The country has also expanded its pool of long-dated securities to strengthen its appeal.

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The Indian rupee sank to a fresh record low against the US dollar, fueled by soaring energy import costs during an ongoing energy crisis and accelerating capital outflows. This has intensified pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to potentially hike interest rates, ending a pause in monetary tightening.

Foreign portfolio investors sold shares valued at ₹64,761 crore in the first half of June, marking the highest monthly outflow since March. The selling was led by financial services and oil and gas sectors amid rising oil prices.

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Global investors cut their holdings in India's financial services sector during the second half of May, though at a slower pace than earlier in the month. They sold shares worth ₹5,181 crore in the period. FPIs stayed net sellers overall despite inflows into other areas.

 

 

 

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