Following short-term forecasts of heavy rains through early March, the Kenya Meteorological Department now predicts intensified rainfall across most regions in the first half of March 2026, tapering later, as the March-April-May (MAM) rainy season begins. Highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, and other areas face near-average to above-average amounts, prompting NTSA warnings for slippery roads.
Building on recent short-term predictions of above-average rainfall through March 3, the Kenya Meteorological Department has issued its monthly outlook, urging preparation for the March 2026 transition into the MAM rainy season.
Highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, South Coast, Northwestern regions, and parts of southern lowlands are forecast to receive near-average to above-average rainfall. Intensified rains are expected in the first half of March, reducing in the second half. "March marks the official onset of the MAM season, peaking in April with possible isolated heavy events nationwide, ending by late May for most areas," the department stated.
Counties including Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Nairobi, Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, and Nakuru will see near- to above-average conditions, with heavy rain early in the month.
The National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA) on March 2 advised motorists: "Slow down on wet roads, maintain distance, and use headlights amid reduced visibility." Recent rains have already disrupted travel, including a February 28 snarl-up on Nairobi-Nakuru Highway and a fatal Mombasa Road incident.