Trade tariffs and rail woes test South Africa's mining resilience

The African Mining Indaba 2026 began in Cape Town on 9 February, highlighting challenges in South Africa's mining industry amid US tariffs and logistics issues. The Minerals Council South Africa launched its 2025 Facts and Figures report, revealing profit gains but persistent hurdles in electricity, rail, and exploration. Industry leaders expressed cautious optimism for stabilisation in 2026.

The African Mining Indaba 2026 opened in Cape Town on Monday, 9 February, drawing attention to the state of South Africa's mining sector. At the event, the Minerals Council South Africa released its 2025 Facts and Figures report, providing key insights into the industry's performance.

Mining remains a cornerstone of the economy, with gold contributing nearly 20% of total sales earnings despite making up only 10.5% of production volume. Profits rose by R21.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year, driven by coal, gold, and iron ore. The sector added 2,000 jobs by the third quarter of 2025, supporting nearly 900,000 direct jobs and the livelihoods of 3.6 million South Africans, according to Mzila Mthenjane, CEO of the Minerals Council.

'Mining is a powerful multiplier. Growing mining grows the economy and jobs,' Mthenjane stated.

However, challenges persist. Electricity costs pose a major issue, with Mthenjane calling for a holistic approach and expansion of the grid by 14,000 km to enable renewable energy projects. Rail services, managed by Transnet, continue to underperform, falling short of targets and far from the 226 million tonnes railed in 2017. 'While the improvement in rail services is encouraging, Transnet is simply not meeting its own targets... however, it could reach its 250 million tonnes by 2030 target with private sector participation,' Mthenjane noted.

Exploration spending dropped to R781 million in 2024 from a peak of R6.2 billion in 2006, raising concerns. 'The lifeblood of mining is exploration. Without it the mining sector has no future... This is deeply troubling for our sector and it needs urgent attention,' Mthenjane said.

Export earnings dipped 2% to R498.1 billion, with base metals suffering a 20% decline to R165.1 billion, partly due to US tariffs under the Trump administration. Looking to 2026, Bongani Motsa, acting chief economist at the Minerals Council, highlighted constraints from high power tariffs, poor logistics, and rising labour costs. 'Execution on logistics recovery, energy reliability and affordability as well as reduced permitting times... will determine whether 2026 shifts from stabilisation to sustained growth.'

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South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presents the 2026 budget, highlighting debt stabilisation, social grants, and infrastructure investment.
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South Africa unveils 2026 budget focusing on debt stabilisation

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Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presented the 2026 National Budget on 25 February 2026, announcing debt stabilisation at 78.9% of GDP and the withdrawal of proposed tax increases. The budget allocates R292.8 billion for social grants with increases for recipients and commits R1.07 trillion to infrastructure over the medium term. Reforms aim to enhance economic growth and public service efficiency amid a projected 1.6% growth for 2026.

South Africa's business landscape in 2025 started with optimism amid hopes for lower interest rates and stable governance, but quickly faced challenges from power stability gains to budget disputes and international trade pressures.

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Building on the roller-coaster business year of 2025—which saw Eskom gains, budget battles, and eventual credit upgrades—South Africa begins 2026 with enhanced macroeconomic stability, including reliable power supply and a credit rating upgrade, fostering a more predictable business environment. However, persistent issues like high unemployment, crime, and slow coalition politics limit broader recovery. This balance creates a narrow window for progress rather than a complete turnaround.

After strong gains in 2025, South African markets enter 2026 with increased volatility and a shift toward strategic diversification. Experts warn of fewer easy opportunities as global trends like US dollar weakness fade. Local equities and bonds may face challenges amid economic divides.

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South Africa's economy is displaying early signs of recovery in early 2026, with inflation cooling to 3.5% and unemployment easing slightly to 31.4%. However, experts caution that the improvements are incremental and the overall foundation remains fragile. Structural challenges, including youth unemployment and sector-specific issues, continue to hinder progress.

Several South African companies are navigating major strategic shifts through rescue plans, delistings and partnerships in key industries. Tongaat Hulett advances its recovery, while Mahube Infrastructure eyes privatization and Merafe Resources seeks energy solutions. British American Tobacco anticipates steady growth, and BHP bolsters its operations with new investments.

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Minerals and Petroleum Minister Gwede Mantashe announced delays in the rollout of South Africa's mining cadastre due to data issues during the Mining Indaba in Cape Town. The system, essential for processing mining permits and enhancing transparency, remains stalled despite industry calls for urgency. Officials cited challenges in digitizing legacy paper records as a key obstacle.

 

 

 

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