The specialty coffee industry is expanding rapidly, with more roasters opening worldwide, particularly in emerging markets. This growth intensifies competition and squeezes margins for traders amid high costs and consolidation. Experts highlight both opportunities and challenges in the evolving supply chain.
The number of coffee roasters has risen sharply over the past decade, driven by demand for higher-quality coffee. This trend is evident in regions like Eastern Europe, where Romania's specialty coffee shops and roasteries grew from about three in 2013 to over 120 by 2021. In the Middle East, the branded coffee shop sector exceeded 11,160 outlets by 2025, with Saudi Arabia representing 46% of them, according to Project Café Middle East 2025.
For green coffee traders, this expansion presents a paradox. "Coffee traders, like all actors in the supply chain, are under pressure due to elevated costs in logistics, financing, and compliance," says Eileen Gordon Laity, Secretary General at the European Coffee Federation. "However, a growing base of roasters can provide traders with a more diversified and resilient customer portfolio."
High costs challenge scaling. Arabica prices peaked at US$4.41/lb in February 2025, and US tariffs up to 50% on Brazil added strain. Producers have shown reluctance to commit during rising prices; in 2021, Colombian farmers defaulted on sales after prices rose 55%, per a Euronews report.
Consolidation has reduced independent traders. Smaller firms are absorbed by larger ones, such as Neumann Kaffee Gruppe's 2023 acquisition of a majority stake in Nordic Approach and Tropiq. "With the acquisition of the majority of shares in Nordic Approach and Tropiq," said NKG Group CEO David M. Neumann, "we are confident that we are now in an ideal position to expand our specialty business not just in Scandinavia, but across Europe, Asia and the Middle East."
Similar trends affect roasters: Peet's Coffee acquired Intelligentsia and Stumptown in 2015, Nestlé took a 70% stake in Blue Bottle Coffee in 2017, and Lavazza bought Carte Noire, Kicking Horse, and Maxicoffee.
Some roasters turn to direct trade for control and transparency, but complexities arise. "Direct trade means so many things to so many different roasters and consumers," notes Jim Cleaves, a consultant with over 40 years' experience. Eileen adds, "It can foster close producer-roaster relationships, transparency, and mutual commitment to quality. However, it also entails logistical, legal, and financial complexities..."
"The global coffee landscape is evolving rapidly," Eileen concludes. "This evolution can be a strength, not a threat."