The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) opened stronger by 37 points or 0.45 percent at 8,318 on trading Wednesday, February 25, 2026. However, analysts predict a continued correction to the 8,200-8,250 level due to uncertainty over US tariffs under President Donald Trump. Global sentiments from China and Europe also influence the outlook for Indonesia's stock market.
On the opening of trading Wednesday, February 25, 2026, the IHSG rose 37 points or 0.45 percent to 8,318, following a previous close down 1.37 percent at 8,280.33. Phintraco Sekuritas analysts noted weakening momentum in the MACD histogram and formation of a Death Cross in Stochastic RSI in overbought territory. "Thus, the IHSG correction is estimated to potentially continue and test support levels at 8,200-8,250," quoted from Phintraco Sekuritas research.
Market sentiment is colored by uncertainty over US tariff policies and tight US interest rate prospects. On the same day, President Donald Trump is scheduled to address the US Congress on the state of the nation and future policy plans. From China, the central bank maintained the 1-year Loan Prime Rate at 3 percent and 5-year at 3.5 percent for February 2026. In Europe, Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence for March 2026 is estimated at -23.8 from -24.1, while Euro Area inflation for January 2026 slows to 1.7 percent year-on-year from 2 percent.
Meanwhile, Binaartha Sekuritas analyst Ivan Rosanova projects an initial correction as subwave ii, followed by an aggressive rebound toward 8,527 and above. Support levels are set at 8,160, 7,989, and 7,835, with resistance at 8,527, 8,812, and 8,992. Stock recommendations include PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) with buy on weakness at 6,000-6,200 target 7,100; PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) buy 7,000-7,150 target 8,175; PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) hold target 2,480; PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) trading buy 2,550-2,580 target 2,730; and PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) target 320,000.
"After the end of this subwave ii correction, the IHSG should strengthen again more aggressively toward 8,527 and above," said Ivan Rosanova.
