Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic reported a 700% spike in cryptocurrency outflows from Iran's largest exchange, Nobitex, minutes after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes hit Tehran over the weekend. The strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and targeted key sites, prompting possible capital flight via digital assets. This event highlights cryptocurrencies' role in bypassing sanctions and banking restrictions in Iran.
U.S. and Israeli airstrikes struck Tehran at 9:45 a.m. local time on Saturday, codenamed Operation Roaring Lion by Israel and Epic Fury by the Pentagon. The attacks targeted nuclear facilities, missile sites, and the Pasteur district, where Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei resided. Iran confirmed Khamenei's death hours later, along with other top officials, escalating the Middle East conflict.
Almost immediately, outgoing cryptocurrency transactions from Nobitex, Iran's largest exchange, surged 700%, according to Elliptic's Monday report. Nobitex processed $7.2 billion in transactions in 2025 and serves over 11 million users. It enables conversions from Iranian rials to crypto and withdrawals to external wallets, providing a workaround to the country's restricted banking system and international sanctions.
Elliptic's blockchain tracing showed funds moving to overseas exchanges that have previously received significant Iranian inflows. "The outflows potentially represent capital flight from Iran that bypasses the traditional banking system," said Dr. Tom Robinson, Elliptic's co-founder and chief scientist.
Similar spikes occurred earlier this year. On January 9, outflows rose amid anti-regime protests and a government internet blackout, with some activity continuing despite the shutdown. Two other surges followed U.S. sanctions announcements on Iranian actors.
Cryptocurrency markets reacted sharply. Bitcoin fell from around $67,000 to below $64,000, with the total market capitalization dropping $128 billion due to liquidations. It briefly rallied above $68,000 before settling around $65,300 by Sunday afternoon and approaching $70,000 later. Ether declined but some altcoins rebounded 6-10%.
Thomas Probst of Kaiko noted a restrained market reaction, while Timot Lamarre of Unchained highlighted bitcoin's role in chaotic environments with counterparty risk. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced no vessels would cross the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil passes, driving oil futures higher. Goldman Sachs projected oil could reach $100 per barrel if the conflict lasts four to five weeks.
