The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has issued an alert about a likely moderate to strong El Niño event developing in 2026.
In a statement released on June 9 the authority said global climate models show an 80 to 82 per cent chance of El Niño forming between June and August. The probability rises to 90 to 96 per cent that the conditions will continue through December.
The outlook indicates that the June to August period will bring near average or below average rainfall in many regions including the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria Basin. Southeastern and northeastern areas are expected to stay mostly dry with warmer temperatures.
Conditions are projected to change in the October to December season when El Niño typically increases rainfall and raises flood risks. The authority is also monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole which could turn positive and strengthen the rainfall effects.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority urged the public county governments and disaster agencies to remain alert and follow official updates.