SportsLine's projection model recommends the Los Angeles Clippers to cover the +4.5 spread versus the Denver Nuggets in Thursday's NBA game. The model, which simulates each matchup 10,000 times, projects Kawhi Leonard to lead the Clippers with 30.5 points. This pick forms part of a three-leg parlay offering over +450 payout potential.
The NBA returns from the All-Star break with a 10-game slate on Thursday, February 19. Among the matchups, the Denver Nuggets host the Los Angeles Clippers at 10:30 p.m. ET, with the Nuggets favored by 4.5 points. SportsLine's Projection Model, which has generated over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on top-rated picks over eight-plus seasons, backs the Clippers to cover in nearly 70% of simulations.
The Nuggets aim for a season sweep after defeating the Clippers 130-116 in Los Angeles on November 12 and 122-109 in Denver on January 30. However, Denver enters without forward Aaron Gordon and guard Peyton Watson, both sidelined by hamstring injuries. The Nuggets failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games before the break.
Meanwhile, the Clippers have won three of the last four home meetings against Denver, though this game is in Denver. Veteran forward Kawhi Leonard anchors Los Angeles' offense, averaging 27.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 2.1 steals across 41 starts in 32.8 minutes per game. Leonard notched a double-double with 27 points and 12 rebounds in a 105-102 victory over the Houston Rockets on February 11. He also scored 31 points in the All-Star Game, contributing all but 17 of Team USA Stripes' 48 points against Team World.
The model projects Nikola Jokic to lead the Nuggets with 27.5 points, alongside three other Denver players scoring at least 10.7 points. For the Clippers, five players are expected to reach 10.2 points or more, paced by Leonard. The model has locked in two additional picks for the day, including one team projected to win in nearly 80% of simulations, forming a parlay with over +450 odds.
Other notable spreads include Cleveland as 15.5-point favorites over Brooklyn, after the Cavaliers covered in four of their last five games pre-break.
