One day after US and Israeli attacks on Iran ignited oil price fears, the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Tehran's retaliatory strikes have driven prices up as much as 13%—the largest jump in four years—amid fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, which carry 20% of global crude. OPEC+ ramps up output, while Mexico's peso weakens against the dollar.
The US-Israel operation 'Furia Épica' on February 28 targeted Tehran, nuclear sites, and military facilities, as initially reported. Iranian state media has since confirmed the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with family members and officials like Ali Shamkhani and Mohammad Shirazi. Tehran declared 40 days of mourning, while the Revolutionary Guard vowed 'harsh and decisive' retaliation, launching missiles at Israel and US bases in the Persian Gulf, including Qatar and Bahrain.
Iran temporarily closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz, paralyzing traffic and leading to attacks on three tankers (which Iran denies were intentional). This chokepoint handles 15-20 million barrels daily. Oil prices reacted sharply: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 8% to $72 per barrel from $67 on Friday, while Brent hit $79 (up 8% from $72.48, peaking at 13%). Analysts like Jorge León of Rystad Energy note market panic over supply flows; prolonged issues could push Brent to $108.
OPEC+ nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced a 206,000 barrels-per-day production hike for April. In Mexico, the peso fell to 17.32 per dollar (peaking at 17.38), per Gabriela Siller Pagaza of Banco BASE, amid global risk aversion. President Trump said Iranian leaders 'want to negotiate' and operations are 'faster than expected.' Russia and China condemned the strikes; Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum called for peace. Casualties include 85 at a Minab school and 15 in Lamerd. eToro's Josh Gilbert warns of volatility without de-escalation.
