Recent public polling shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a highly competitive U.S. Senate race, with several surveys indicating Talarico holding an advantage among Hispanic voters. The contest is unfolding as business and community leaders warn that stepped-up immigration enforcement is disrupting Texas industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor.
Public polling in 2026 has consistently depicted a close Texas U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin reported in late June that Paxton led Talarico by a statistically insignificant margin among likely Texas voters overall. In that same polling, Talarico held a notable edge among Hispanic voters. A separate Texas Tribune report based on the same Texas Politics Project polling described the overall race as “neck and neck,” while also reporting that Talarico led among Hispanic voters. (texaspolitics.utexas.edu)
Other recent coverage has similarly characterized the statewide contest as extremely close. The Washington Post reported in late June that the Texas Senate race was “dead even” in one poll. (washingtonpost.com)
While overall numbers have remained tight, Talarico’s relative strength with Hispanic voters has appeared in additional surveys. For example, a UnidosUS poll presentation circulated in spring 2026 also showed Talarico leading Latino voters in head-to-head matchups against Republican opponents. (texastribune.org)
Separately, immigration enforcement has become a central issue for parts of the Texas economy, particularly in labor-intensive industries such as construction. Texas Public Radio reported in December 2025 that South Texas builders said ICE arrests had upended their industry, citing thousands of arrests in South Texas and describing the resulting labor shortages and fear among workers. (tpr.org)
Business advocacy leaders have warned that the political fallout from immigration policy could test Republicans’ recent gains with Latino voters in Texas. Bloomberg Government reported earlier in 2026 that Javier Palomarez, president and CEO of the U.S. Hispanic Business Council, criticized the administration’s enforcement activity as creating “complete chaos.” (news.bgov.com)
Claims about a specific June 2–15 poll of 1,012 Texas-based U.S. Hispanic Business Council members, as well as specific figures on deportations, tariff impacts, and the cited quotes attributed to Benny Melendez, Madison Cercy, and campaign responses, could not be independently verified from the available sources consulted for this review.
