A war in the Middle East involving US and Israeli bombing of Iran and Iranian missile and drone responses has led to widespread airspace closures, forcing airlines to reroute flights and creating a 2.8 million square kilometre void in busy global routes. Airlines are implementing pre-planned contingency measures, but bottlenecks are causing increasing delays and cancellations. Experts warn that the disruptions are worsening amid ongoing conflict.
The conflict, which began with bombing on Saturday, has engulfed the Middle East, clearing the region's skies of commercial traffic to avoid risks from military actions. Airspace is divided into Flight Information Regions (FIRs) managed by governments, which issue Notices to Air Missions (Notams) to restrict or close areas during extreme situations like this regional war. Multiple FIRs have been closed since the bombing started, resulting in a 2.8m sq km (1.08m sq mile) gap.
Airlines independently assess risks, influenced by warnings from their home countries and insurance coverage. For instance, Lebanon's FIR remains technically open but largely avoided due to Israeli attacks. David Learmount, a former British military pilot and aviation expert, stated: “In the end, the decision about whether a piece of airspace is safe to fly your passengers through it is that of the airline and the airline’s dispatchers, depending on the level of risk.”
Rerouting has focused on two main corridors: one north into the Caucasus below Ukraine's closed airspace, and another south through Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, which face intermittent attacks. These paths, pre-programmed in many aircraft, are creating chokepoints. Learmount added: “This problem is not getting better, it’s getting worse. You can see the patterns of the way aircraft are going. The northern one is a bottleneck of narrow airspace that routes below southern Russia and Ukraine, and it really entails going through Afghanistan, which is not a very friendly place. Or there is the option of going through southern Saudi Arabia. The airlines don’t really have a choice.”
Major hubs like Dubai, the world's busiest for international transits, have been shuttered, severely impacting carriers such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways. Limited operations are resuming for repatriation and essential transit under strict conditions, with special permissions allowing occasional flights in partially closed areas. Oman's airspace remains open despite attacks.
The impacts include delays, cancellations, longer flight times, increased fuel use, and financial losses, with airline stocks selling off. Steve Fox, director of operations control at Nats, the UK's air traffic control provider, described a “huge black hole” in Middle Eastern airspace leading to “significantly longer routings, flight times and fuel uplifts.” He noted: “What seems certain is that things will be uncertain for some time to come.”
