Dollar closes higher in Next Day mode due to US holiday

The Colombian dollar closed higher at $3,657.14 in Next Day mode, driven by the US Presidents' Day holiday. Meanwhile, oil prices showed minimal variations, with Brent falling 0.3% to US$67.52 per barrel and WTI to US$62.72. Trading activity was moderate due to closures for holidays in several global markets.

On Monday, February 16, 2026, the Colombian dollar recorded a higher close in Next Day mode, due to the US holiday for Presidents' Day. The currency ended at $3,657.14, an increase of $4.25 from the Representative Market Rate (TRM) of $3,652.89 for that day. During the session, it hit a low of $3,645.01 and a high of $3,669, with 135 transactions totaling US$61.8 million.

Mauricio Acevedo, strategist for currencies and derivatives at Corficolombiana, explained: "This 23% increase in the minimum has affected inflation, which will lead the Bank of the Republic to continue raising its rates to contain consumption, and if rates are higher, more portfolio resources will come to invest, so the structural decline may continue downward".

In the international context, markets in mainland China, South Korea, and Taiwan remained closed for Lunar New Year, moderating activity. Attention focused on the path of US interest rates after slower-than-expected inflation data, with operators estimating a Fed cut in July and possible change in June.

Andrea Gabellone, global equity director at KBC Securities, stated: “The outlook for equities is positive after the CPI”. He added that there could be “more dispersion in the future, as confidence around key sectors exposed to AI remains very critical”.

Regarding oil, prices varied little as investors assessed talks between the US and Iran to reduce tensions, amid potential supply increases from OPEC+. The previous week, Brent fell 0.5% and WTI 1%, after comments from President Donald Trump on a possible deal with Tehran. A second round of talks is set for Tuesday in Geneva on Iran's nuclear program.

An Iranian diplomat indicated that Iran seeks economic benefits such as investments in energy and mining, and aircraft purchases. The US has deployed a second aircraft carrier and is preparing military options if negotiations fail, according to officials. Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned of retaliation against US bases.

SEB analysts noted: "An increase in Iranian tension could take Brent to US$80 per barrel. If tension decreases, it would fall back to US$60 per barrel". OPEC+ leans toward resuming production increases from April, after a three-month pause.

Makala yanayohusiana

Dramatic photo of Strait of Hormuz blockade with warships, smoke from strikes, surging oil prices on screens, and crashing stock markets amid Middle East conflict.
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Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Prices Higher Amid Strait Closure, Deepens Global Market Sell-Off

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As the US-Israel-Iran conflict escalates following February 28 strikes and weekend retaliation—including the reported death of Ayatollah Khamenei—the Strait of Hormuz has closed, pushing oil prices to new highs and intensifying market volatility. Updated casualties exceed 740, while analysts predict inflation spikes and delayed rate cuts. Mexico sees sharp peso depreciation and stock plunges.

The Colombian dollar closed higher on Tuesday, reaching $3,659.85, driven by expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Meanwhile, Brent and WTI oil prices fell slightly amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are assessing economic data that could influence U.S. monetary policy.

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The Colombian peso closed higher on Wednesday, driven by oil price volatility following President Donald Trump's announcement of a blockade on sanctioned tankers to Venezuela. Crude prices rose over 2%, with Brent at US$60.33 per barrel. President Gustavo Petro warned that a drop to US$55 per barrel would make oil production in Colombia unprofitable.

Financial markets shrug off the US military intervention in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, as the Ibex 35 surpasses 17,600 points. European and US stock indices rise moderately, while oil prices climb 1%. Investors choose caution amid geopolitical risks.

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Continuing its strong revaluation trend earlier in January—where it led emerging currencies with gains over 4% through January 22—the Colombian peso depreciated 1.36% on January 28, 2026, diverging from appreciating regional peers like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso. Despite the daily drop, it holds a 3.5% monthly gain amid global volatility and commodity rebounds.

In the wake of US-Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—detailed in prior coverage of crypto market volatility—gold prices rose 2% while oil surged over 7%, reflecting safe-haven demand amid escalating Middle East tensions.

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Oil prices have rallied sharply following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, escalating Middle East tensions. Brent and WTI crude futures reached multi-month highs as supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz loom large. Analysts foresee further increases, potentially reaching $80 a barrel by 2026, up 20%.

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