Electricity prices in Sweden rose sharply in February, with the biggest increases in the north where rates became over 660 percent more expensive than the previous year. Experts point to cold weather, weak winds, and increased exports as causes of the shock. Forecasts suggest March may be cheaper, but uncertainties remain.
February marked the most expensive month for electricity in Sweden since the 2022 energy crisis, and the costliest February on record. Prices rose across the country, but especially in the northern bidding zones. In bidding zone 1 (Luleå), the spot price reached 98.8 öre per kWh, a 667 percent increase from 12.9 öre in February last year. In zone 2 (Sundsvall), it was 98.5 öre, up 580 percent from 14.5 öre. Southern areas also saw rises: 110.2 öre in Stockholm (from 77 öre) and 113.3 öre in Malmö (from 103.9 öre).
Claes Hemberg, energy economist at Nibe, observes that northern Sweden now faces prices similar to those in Skåne. “Usually, the southern parts have three to five times more expensive electricity prices, but during February, the entire country had the same high prices,” he writes in an email. He attributes the increases to cold weather, lack of wind power, and exports to Finland via the new Aurora line, operational since November 2023.
Maria Erdmann, CEO of Godel, explains that wind power has not delivered as expected, combined with high demand from heating. “In a large part of Swedish households, electricity is used for heating, so when it gets cold, we demand more electricity. Then it simply costs more.”
Additional factors include low precipitation affecting hydropower and geopolitical tensions around gas imports to Europe due to the war in Iran, which raises prices in southern Sweden. Erdmann describes the market as “really worried and uncertain.” The forecast points to lower prices in March compared to February, but Hemberg warns that the tough weeks may extend into the month and that a positive turn in household economics is delayed until April. Villa households' average bills rose by ten percent from January.
