Experts discuss Marine Le Pen's future after the trial

In an interview with Le Monde, specialists Nicolas Lebourg and Baptiste Roger-Lacan analyze the repercussions of the appeal trial of Front national assistants on Marine Le Pen's political future. They note that the Rassemblement national (RN) uses this case to strengthen its victim narrative against the justice system. This context fits into a global wave of the extreme right, explored in a special issue of the newspaper.

The appeal trial of Front national (FN) parliamentary assistants, the former name of Rassemblement national (RN), is the subject of in-depth analyses by experts. Nicolas Lebourg, historian and political scientist at the University of Montpellier, and Baptiste Roger-Lacan, PhD in history specializing in counter-revolutionary imaginaries, gave a joint interview to Le Monde on March 5, 2026.

Questioned on the impact of the trial's requisitions on Marine Le Pen, Lebourg points out that the RN has managed to have two leading figures: Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, the latter even surpassing the first in opinion polls. He mentions Marion Maréchal's book, “Si tu te sens Le Pen” (Fayard), which repositions the author in the Le Pen dynasty, and notes that Marine Le Pen will be 63 years old in 2032, recalling that the last president elected over 60 was Jacques Chirac.

Roger-Lacan observes that the requisitions confirm an unfavorable outcome for Marine Le Pen, without stating it categorically. If an ineligibility penalty is confirmed, it would obscure her future, but the RN sees this impediment as a way to strengthen its victim narrative, portraying the party as a martyr of judges with ideological motivations. These attacks on justice are recurrent in the extreme right across Europe, serving to capture aspirations to eliminate intermediaries.

Meanwhile, a Le Monde special issue, published at the time of this trial, explores the inner workings of the RN in the context of a new age of the global extreme right. It discusses its presence in power or at the gates of power in Hungary, Italy, and potentially the United States, and in France for 2027. The issue addresses the RN's “dédiabolisation,” its penetration into the high administration, and the role of Vincent Bolloré's media in spreading nationalist ideas. The extreme right, nearly disappeared in France after Liberation, has undergone transformations due to its plasticity, with an often patchwork ideological corpus and absent internal debates leading to implosions.

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Courtroom illustration of defense lawyers arguing in the Paris Court of Appeal during the FN assistants' appeal trial involving Marine Le Pen.
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Defense takes the stage in appeal trial of FN assistants

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Defense pleadings began on Wednesday, February 4, before the Paris Court of Appeal in the case of the Front National's European parliamentary assistants, aiming to minimize the defendants' responsibility. The previous day's prosecution requisitions demand five years of ineligibility for Marine Le Pen, casting doubt on her 2027 presidential candidacy. The court's decision is expected before summer.

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial in the Rassemblement national (RN) parliamentary assistants case begins on Tuesday, January 13, in Paris, and will run until February 12. Convicted in the first instance to four years in prison including two firm and five years of immediate ineligibility, the RN leader risks seeing her political future jeopardized ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Jordan Bardella, RN president, reaffirmed his total support for Marine Le Pen on the eve of the hearing.

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A recent poll shows an erosion of Marine Le Pen's image among the French, especially RN sympathizers, who prefer Jordan Bardella for the 2027 presidency. Despite her 2025 conviction, RN ideas are gaining ground in public opinion, splitting France evenly between concerns and enthusiasm. The party retains its momentum amid judicial troubles.

Marine Le Pen's defense scored a point on the second day of the appeal trial over the Front National's European parliamentary assistants. The public prosecutor's office believes the party cannot be held accountable for unpursued contracts, as the tribunal ruled in March 2025. The court must rule on this legal issue on Thursday.

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Rassemblement National leaders Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella must again justify their closeness to Donald Trump, as in the 2017 and 2022 elections. On a January 25, 2026, TV show, Bardella defended himself against accusations of fervent support for the US president.

As Jordan Bardella, president of the Rassemblement National (RN), faces attacks on his inexperience, a sociologist notes that his voters value life experience more than formal competencies. A recent JDD poll ranks Bardella among the top favorite political figures, signaling rising popularity on the far right. These debates arise ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

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Peimane Ghaleh-Marzban, president of the Paris judicial tribunal, has warned against potential US interference in the case of the Front National's parliamentary assistants. The alert comes ahead of the appeal trial for Marine Le Pen and eleven other defendants, accused of diverting European Parliament funds. It follows reports of US sanction threats against French magistrates.

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