Labor reform approval drives down Argentina's country risk

Argentina's lower house approved the labor reform on Friday, February 20, 2026, sparking a positive response in financial markets. The Country Risk dropped to 519 basis points, aided by gains in sovereign bonds. The Central Bank also built reserves by purchasing US$ 167 million that day.

The approval of the labor reform in Argentina's Chamber of Deputies on Friday, February 20, 2026, boosted the country's financial indicators. According to Rava Bursátil reports, the Country Risk, measured by JP Morgan, closed at 519 basis points, a drop of five points from Thursday's close of 524. This decline was linked to an average 0.7% rise in dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, such as Globals and Bonars, amid optimism over the executive's structural reforms.

During the session, the indicator ranged between a high of 524 and a low of 516 points. Weekly, the Country Risk remained stable at 519 points, with a low of 511 on Tuesday the 17th and a peak of 524 on Thursday the 19th. The labor reform's passage was met with 'moderate celebration' by investors, offsetting earlier losses, per an Infobae report from February 20, 2026: 'The country risk subtracted three units for Argentina, at 519 basis points'.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), led by Santiago Bausili, purchased US$ 167 million in the foreign exchange market that day. Gross international reserves reached US$ 46,261 million, the highest level since August 2021, up US$ 1,348 million from the previous day. Year-to-date, the BCRA has accumulated purchases of US$ 2,412 million, and US$ 1,255 million in February.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported the labor reform but warned of 'transition' costs. Emilio Botto of Mills Capital Group noted that reserve purchases support exchange rate stability and could drive the country risk toward 450 points. The wholesale dollar closed at $1,376, down 0.9%, while the blue dollar traded between $1,410 and $1,430.

The Country Risk measures the premium Argentina pays above U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting investor risk perception.

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Illustration depicting Argentina's country risk dropping below 500 points for the first time in eight years, with rising reserves and investor optimism.
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Argentina's country risk breaks below 500 points after eight years

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Argentina's country risk indicator dropped to 494 basis points on January 27, 2026, its lowest level since May 2018, driven by rising sovereign bonds and the central bank's reserve accumulation. This decline signals growing investor optimism about the country's fiscal solvency. International reserves approach 46 billion dollars after daily net purchases.

Argentina's country risk indicator, compiled by JP Morgan, closed at 504 basis points on Monday, February 9, 2026, following a recovery day for sovereign bonds. The drop was driven by gains in dollar-denominated public securities and a stable exchange environment. The Central Bank built reserves exceeding 45 billion dollars.

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Argentina's country risk closed on Thursday, February 5, 2026, at 516 basis points, up 14 units from the previous day, amid global volatility and the arrival of an IMF mission. Argentine assets on Wall Street fell up to 8.5%, while sovereign bonds showed mixed results. Experts attribute the rise mainly to international factors rather than local deteriorations.

Economist Alejandro Barros explained that stabilizing the exchange rate and increasing the peso's role in Argentina's economy will further reduce country risk. Barros stated that eliminating distortive exchange rates is key to this trend. The government celebrates the current drop but prioritizes reserve accumulation before returning to debt markets.

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Argentina's Central Bank announced on Monday, December 15, 2025, the first measures of its 2026 economic plan, including updating exchange rate bands according to inflation and a consistent program to accumulate international reserves. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) welcomed these decisions, aligned with its prior recommendations. Meanwhile, the National Treasury purchased 320 million dollars following the announcements.

Argentina's Central Bank released its latest Market Expectations Survey, drawing from 45 analysts' projections, estimating 2.4% inflation for January 2026 and a dollar rate of $1,475 in February.

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Argentina's Central Bank bought US$55 million on January 12, its sixth consecutive daily purchase since January 5 under the 2026 accumulation plan announced in December, bringing the total to US$273 million. Gross reserves climbed to a new Milei-era high of US$44.768 million amid stable exchange rates.

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