A report from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center states that the rains marking early 2026 in Colombia will continue at least until April, driven by La Niña's shift to a neutral phase. Experts warn of precipitation 41.6% more intense than in March 2025, per Ideam. In the second half of the year, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño returning, potentially decreasing rains and raising temperatures.
The heavy rains impacting Colombia since the start of 2026 will last until April, according to a report from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. This is due to La Niña transitioning to a neutral phase, yet its effects will linger for weeks, leading to precipitation above historical averages across various regions.
Cold fronts across the continent will exacerbate March rains, with the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam) forecasting a 41.6% increase in intensity compared to March 2025, drawn from its short-, medium-, and long-term climate prediction.
However, conditions are expected to shift in the second half of the year. NOAA anticipates a 56% chance of neutral conditions from June to August in the Northern Hemisphere. Afterward, a 50-60% probability of El Niño developing, which would reduce rains—especially in the Andean and Caribbean regions—while bringing above-normal temperatures and potential water stress. This could extend through November or year-end, though projections are less certain.
The Institute of Technological Agricultural Research and Development (IDIAT) emphasizes significant effects on agriculture, given Colombia's climatic diversity. The Ministry of Agriculture warns of risks including lower crop yields, reduced river flows, heightened forest fire threats, and possible water rationing.
