2026年1月巴西对华牛肉出口激增，使年度配额面临提前耗尽的风险，预计9月前达到上限。巴西政府警告，若不控制出口，可能导致国内价格崩盘和畜牧业就业损失。中国对超额进口征收55%的关税。
巴西牛肉对华出口正以创纪录的速度增长，据圣保罗大学应用经济高级研究中心（Cepea）的研究人员周二表示，如果1月份的出口速度持续，巴西将在2026年底前耗尽其110.6万吨的年度配额，预计9月前达到上限。1月份，巴西向中国出口了119,630吨牛肉，这是1月份有史以来最大量。
中国宣布，2026年超过固定国家配额的进口将面临55%的关税，远高于标准的12%税率。该措施适用于巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭和美国。对于巴西，上限约为110万吨。超过该阈值的出口将面临商业上不可行的风险。
在上周巴西报纸《圣保罗页报》（Folha de S. Paulo）获得的农业部内部信件中，该部表示，缺乏协调响应可能导致“贸易流程的强烈紊乱”，并增加“价格和就业崩盘”的风险，整个牛肉供应链将受影响。巴西利亚正在权衡出口限制，以避免国内价格暴跌和就业损失。
Cepea指出，这种激增源于市场需求，但政府强调需要协调以维持国内市场稳定。
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Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno announced a trade agreement between Argentina and the United States that expands the beef export quota to 100,000 tons and removes tariff barriers in key sectors. The deal aims to strengthen bilateral economic ties and could boost exports by up to $1,013 million. The agricultural sector, particularly meat exporters, hailed the pact as a major step forward.
Brazilian officials lack clarity on whether beef shipments en route to China will count against Beijing's new import quotas announced last week. The volume is small relative to 2025 exports, but the industry fears sales disruptions amid the broader safeguard measures affecting major exporters like Argentina and Australia.
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The People's Republic of China announced safeguard measures for beef imports starting January 1, 2026, with country-specific quotas and 55% tariffs on excess volumes. These will affect Argentina, with limits of 511,000 tons in 2026, 521,000 in 2027, and 532,000 in 2028. Experts estimate the initial impact will be limited but could encourage market diversification.
US President Donald Trump announced on Monday (12) a 25% tariff on commercial transactions with countries doing business with Iran, effective immediately and impacting Brazil, a key exporter of agricultural products to Tehran. The decision comes amid violent protests in Iran, with 648 deaths recorded since December 28, escalating geopolitical tensions. The Brazilian government is awaiting details of the executive order to respond.
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中国2025年出口增长5.5%，达到3.77万亿美元，而进口保持平稳在2.58万亿美元，从而实现1.19万亿美元的创纪录贸易顺差。这一表现超出预期，尽管面临贸易紧张局势，但通过向东盟和非洲等市场的多元化驱动。官员们将这一强劲成果归功于支持性政策和产业深度。
Argentina's agroexport sector commended the progress made in 2025 under President Javier Milei's government, highlighting macroeconomic stabilization, predictability in exchange rates and inflation, and reductions in grain export duties. Gustavo Idígoras, head of CIARA and CEC, foresaw a more stable policy for 2026 benefiting agriculture. These steps produced positive signs amid a year of intense changes.
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Delegations from Brazil and the United States met in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Monday, October 27, 2025, to begin negotiations on the 50% tariffs imposed by the US on Brazilian products. The meeting follows the encounter between Presidents Lula and Donald Trump the previous day on the sidelines of the Asean summit. The parties agreed on a meeting schedule and plan a Brazilian visit to Washington in early November.