A new report warns that adversaries are harvesting encrypted data today for future decryption using quantum computers, posing trillions in economic risks to banks. The Citi Institute estimates a single such attack could jeopardize $2 trillion to $3.3 trillion of U.S. GDP. Financial institutions must accelerate post-quantum preparations amid rising cyberattacks.
The financial sector is grappling with the 'harvest now, decrypt later' threat, where hackers collect encrypted data from banks and networks for later cracking with quantum technology. According to a January 2026 Citi Institute report, a quantum-enabled cyberattack on a top-five U.S. bank's Fedwire access could risk $2 trillion to $3.3 trillion in American GDP, potentially causing a six-month recession and 10 to 17 percent drop in economic output. No such quantum computers exist yet, but the Global Risk Institute's 2024 survey estimates a 19 to 34 percent chance of 'Q-Day'—when they can break current encryption—by 2034, rising above 60 percent by 2044.
Current cyberattacks are intensifying the pressure. Check Point Software's 2025 report shows incidents against finance doubled to 1,858 from 864 in 2024, with DDoS attacks up 105 percent, data breaches rising 73 percent, and 451 ransomware cases. Israel faced 16.6 percent of DDoS volume, followed by the United States at 5.9 percent and the United Arab Emirates at 5.6 percent. Groups like Keymous+ and NoName057 use botnets for rapid strikes, often by unidentified actors.
Transitioning to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is essential. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology finalized initial PQC standards in August 2024 and added HQC in March 2025. A January 2025 White House executive order calls for faster federal adoption. The Financial Services Information Sharing and Analysis Center's September 2025 white paper highlights 'crypto-procrastination' risks, urging timelines for quantum defenses. EU efforts target high-risk system transitions by 2030.
AI offers defenses, with JPMorgan Chase allocating $18 billion for 2025 technology spending, including AI for risk and fraud, reaching 200,000 users on its LLM Suite. Bank of America invests $13 billion, with $4 billion for AI. Glilot Capital Partners raised $500 million in September 2025 for AI-cybersecurity startups. The World Economic Forum's 2025 report stresses collaboration for quantum strategies, while the UK committed $162 million to quantum tech in April 2025.
Experts advise immediate cryptographic inventories, prioritizing long-term data systems, and integrating quantum risks into governance and eDiscovery processes.
