Speculation surrounds a potential spot XRP ETF launch by Canary Capital on November 13, following the removal of a delaying amendment from its filing. Experts and Polymarket odds indicate near 100% conviction for approval amid ongoing SEC delays and a government shutdown. ChatGPT forecasts significant price impacts for XRP depending on market conditions.
The hype for a spot Ripple (XRP) ETF has intensified since a change in SEC leadership earlier this year. Current odds from experts and Polymarket show near 100% conviction for such a product, though the SEC has yet to approve it amid an enduring government shutdown. The XRP community remains optimistic about Canary Capital's filing, which removed the “delaying amendment,” potentially allowing a launch on November 13—a strategy recently used by other ETF issuers.
To assess potential price effects, analysts consulted ChatGPT, which provided insights based on prior crypto ETF launches, including Bitcoin's in January 2024 and Ethereum's in July 2024. The AI anticipates an initial “pop” for XRP post-launch, followed by a choppy “sell-the-news” period. It expects these products to eventually drive a “flows-driven” rally as adoption grows.
In its most optimistic scenario, ChatGPT predicts XRP could surge beyond $7.50 and up to $10 within a year, assuming a “broad crypto risk-on regime and XRP wins significant institutional allocation (multi-billion-dollar AUM).” Over the next six months, it sees a potential peak at around $5.50 if altseason aligns with strong ETF flows. Short-term, after the approval hype fades, XRP might range between $2.70 and $3.40.
Bearish outcomes are also possible. If “macro tightens, flows fizzle, or regulatory headlines turn negative,” XRP could drop to $1.50-$2.00 in six months. In a recession, with investors shifting to risk-off assets, it might fall to $1.20 within a year.
ChatGPT highlighted risks including regulatory headlines like SEC timing or objections, listing logistics such as exchange 8-A approval and custody issues, macro liquidity factors like rates and USD strength, and market rotations involving BTC/ETH dominance or fragmented alt ETF demand.