A new Datafolha survey released on Sunday indicates that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas would win the São Paulo gubernatorial election in the first round if the vote were held today.
The survey interviewed 1,608 voters across 71 municipalities between July 1 and July 3. Tarcísio registers 46% of voting intentions against 30% for Fernando Haddad, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
In valid votes, the current governor reaches 52% while the former finance minister stands at 34%. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under codes SP-01703/2026 and BR-06481/2026.
Emídio de Souza, coordinator of Haddad’s pre-campaign, said the mandatory free electoral advertising slot has not yet begun and that Tarcísio’s advantage may shrink during the campaign. The PT deputy noted that the governor benefits from greater advertising volume and project deliveries.
In March, the same poll showed Tarcísio at 44% and Haddad at 31%. The current 16-point gap remains within the margin of error compared with the previous survey.
