With one match remaining in the Champions League league phase, Liverpool sit fourth and need a victory over Qarabag to secure a direct spot in the round of 16. Their recent 3-0 win over Marseille has strengthened their position among the top eight teams. The new format already outlines possible knockout matchups for the Reds and other English clubs.
The Champions League league phase concludes on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, with all 18 fixtures kicking off simultaneously at 8pm. Liverpool, who have recorded five wins and two losses in their seven games so far, host Qarabag at Anfield in a match that could confirm their seeding. A win would place them firmly in the top eight, earning a direct entry to the round of 16 and avoiding the two-legged playoffs faced by teams finishing ninth to 24th.
Arsenal appear set to finish first, bolstered by a superior goal difference, while Tottenham also require a victory against Eintracht Frankfurt to lock in their top-eight spot. Newcastle United, Chelsea, and Manchester City, all on 13 points, remain in contention but must navigate challenging away games against Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli, respectively, with City needing a home win over Galatasaray plus favorable results elsewhere.
Under the revamped draw format, potential round-of-16 opponents for Liverpool, assuming they hold fourth place, include Atalanta (13th), Inter Milan (14th), Marseille (19th), or Bayer Leverkusen (20th). The Reds have already defeated Marseille this season and Leverkusen 4-0 last term, though Atalanta poses a historical threat.
Advancing to the quarter-finals could pit Liverpool against Tottenham (5th), Paris Saint-Germain (6th), Manchester City (11th), Atletico Madrid (12th), Monaco (21st), or PSV Eindhoven (22nd). PSG and Manchester City represent the toughest draws, recalling Liverpool's round-of-16 exit to the French side last season. Semi-final possibilities include Arsenal, Bayern Munich, or Real Madrid, teams the Reds have beaten this campaign.
This structure places Arsenal on the same bracket side as Newcastle and Chelsea, opening the door for all-English clashes, while Liverpool could encounter Manchester City or Tottenham in the quarters.
