Tigres UANL faces a monumental challenge this Saturday, November 29, at Estadio Universitario, needing to overturn a 3-0 deficit against Xolos de Tijuana to reach the Apertura 2025 semifinals. Artificial Intelligence predicts a home win with 69 percent probability, though the feat would demand a flawless performance. Xolos arrived in Nuevo León with a full squad to defend their lead.
The return leg of the Liga MX Apertura 2025 quarterfinals between Tigres and Xolos de Tijuana will take place this Saturday, November 29, at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza, Nuevo León. Tigres, regular season runner-up with 36 points and the tournament's best defense conceding only 16 goals, lost 3-0 in the first leg at Estadio Caliente, with goals from Kevin Castañeda, El Ghezouani, and Gilberto Mora. To advance, the felines coached by Guido Pizarro need to win by at least three goals while keeping a clean sheet; a Tijuana goal would raise the bar to five.
Xolos, seventh overall with 24 points and qualified via Play-In, arrives under Sebastián Abreu's guidance in his first tournament with the team, emerging as the 'dark horse' of the liguilla. The full squad landed in Monterrey on Friday around 13:00 after a morning training session at Mictlán facilities. Kevin Castañeda, despite a hit in the first leg, made the squad, and Gilberto Mora engaged with fans at the concentration hotel in San Pedro Garza García.
Artificial Intelligence, drawing from historical data, recent statistics, and advanced mathematical models, estimates the match probabilities: Tigres win at 69 percent, draw at 18 percent, and Tijuana win at 13 percent. The most likely scorelines include Tigres 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1 draw, and Tigres 3-1, indicating home dominance but doubt over a full comeback. The atmosphere at El Volcán and Tigres' urgency will be pivotal, while Xolos will focus on resilience and counterattacks to clinch the upset.