As the 98th Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, predictions point to a close contest for best picture between 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners.' Hosted by Conan O'Brien, the ceremony features strong frontrunners in acting categories, with advertising inventory sold out at record rates. Experts anticipate historic milestones in diversity if certain contenders prevail.
The 2026 Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, are generating buzz with predictions favoring Paul Thomas Anderson's 'One Battle After Another' for best picture, according to Hollywood Reporter awards expert Scott Feinberg. The film, an adaptation of Thomas Pynchon's work, has dominated precursors including the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTAs. Chief film critic David Rooney also predicts its win, praising its timely exploration of authoritarianism and ensemble cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio.
Challenger 'Sinners,' directed by Ryan Coogler, holds an all-time record 16 nominations and won the best cast SAG Award. Rooney favors Coogler for best director, noting the vampire drama's layers on racial segregation, violence, and blues appropriation in the 1930s Deep South. Variety's column describes both films as zeitgeist reflections, with 'One Battle After Another' evoking Trump-era authoritarianism and 'Sinners' addressing racial themes through horror-thriller elements.
In best supporting actress, Variety predicts a unpredictable race led by Amy Madigan in 'Weapons,' who swept Critics Choice and SAG but missed BAFTA. At 75, a win would make her the second-oldest victor. Teyana Taylor ('One Battle After Another') swept four major precursors including Golden Globe, while Wunmi Mosaku ('Sinners') won BAFTA. A Taylor or Mosaku victory could mark three consecutive wins for Black women, following Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Zoe Saldaña.
Other frontrunners include Jessie Buckley for best actress in 'Hamnet' and Michael B. Jordan for best actor in 'Sinners.' Disney reports sold-out ad inventory on ABC and Hulu, with 30-second spots exceeding $2 million, up double digits from 2025, amid 19.7 million viewers last year. John Campbell of Disney Advertising highlighted strong demand for live events.
