The National Meteorological Service anticipates three to five heat waves in central Mexico from March to May 2026, with temperatures up to 4 degrees Celsius above average. The Megalopolis Environmental Commission estimates this could trigger up to 15 days of ozone contingency, imposing stricter vehicle restrictions in Mexico City and the State of Mexico.
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) forecasts three to five heat waves in central Mexico from March to May 2026, covering Mexico City, the State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Puebla, Morelos, Tlaxcala, and Querétaro. One of these waves could last up to 15 consecutive days, with maximum temperatures up to 4 degrees Celsius above the climatological average, according to the Megalopolis Environmental Commission (CAMe).
These conditions stem from persistent anticyclonic systems, clear skies, high solar radiation, and weak winds that hinder pollutant dispersion and promote ozone buildup. Consequently, between 5 and 15 days are expected with ozone concentrations exceeding the threshold for Phase I environmental contingency activation, leading to Double Hoy No Circula and other vehicle restrictions in the Mexico Valley Metropolitan Area.
Additionally, the lack of rain in March will heighten the risk of forest fires, another source of contaminant particles. Authorities link the rising frequency, intensity, and duration of these heat waves to global warming, which will increase their occurrence every decade in central Mexico.
To mitigate impacts, recommendations include suspending outdoor activities from 1:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. on poor air quality days, prioritizing remote work and online errands, limiting showers to five minutes, covering pots while cooking, vehicle maintenance, avoiding aerosols and solvents, refueling gasoline before 10:00 a.m. or after 6:00 p.m., and repairing household gas leaks.
