Building on strong advance bookings and positive early buzz for James Cameron's 'Avatar: Fire and Ash,' the third Pandora installment is projected to dominate the box office with $90 million to $105 million domestic over its opening weekend and $340 million to $365 million globally.
Box Office Projections
'Avatar: Fire and Ash' opens in 3,800 domestic theaters on December 19, targeting $90 million to $105 million in North America and $250 million to $275 million internationally for a global debut of $340 million to $365 million. This follows robust advance sales exceeding 70,000 tickets and expectations of over 200,000 day-one admissions.
The Avatar franchise is known for legs rather than front-loaded openings. The original (2009) started at $77 million domestically but topped charts for seven weeks, grossing $760 million in North America and $2.92 billion worldwide. 'The Way of Water' (2022) opened to $134 million domestically, ending at $688 million North American and $2.3 billion global. If 'Fire and Ash' follows suit, it could make the series the first with three $2 billion-plus films.
Competition and Market Context
Counter-programming includes Paramount's 'The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants' ($15-20 million), Lionsgate's 'The Housemaid' ($20-25 million), and Angel Studios' 'David' ($20-25 million), targeting family and thriller crowds. Upcoming holiday releases like A24's 'Marty Supreme,' Focus Features' 'Song Sung Blue,' and Sony's 'Anaconda' aim to lift the domestic year-to-date box office to beyond $8.1 billion. Despite a hefty budget, the film's IMAX/3D appeal and franchise draw position it for chart-topping success.
