Prediction market platforms are still detecting attempts by campaign staffers to place bets on political races, despite new monitoring systems and growing scrutiny over insider trading.
Kalshi, the largest prediction market company, says it has blocked dozens of trades by campaign insiders since May. The company cross-checks Federal Election Commission payroll data against user accounts to flag and prevent such activity.
At least one staffer listed in FEC records managed to complete a trade on a race they worked on. The operative spoke to NPR on condition of anonymity.
Former FEC commissioners noted that the data does not cover volunteers, contractors or state races, leaving gaps in the system. Kalshi has launched more than 150 insider trading investigations this year and referred at least 20 cases to law enforcement.
The House Oversight Committee is investigating enforcement practices at both Kalshi and Polymarket. The probe remains ongoing.
