A Centrão faction voices concern over Flávio Bolsonaro's 2026 presidential pre-candidacy, fearing a right-wing split could boost outsiders like Pablo Marçal and aid Lula's re-election. Group leaders reject a Bolsonaro son as running mate on a ticket with Tarcísio de Freitas, though a dissidence proposes accommodation to prevent division. Michelle Bolsonaro, meanwhile, was furious at not being consulted on the candidacy launch.
The Centrão, a center-right bloc of parties, dreams of a 2026 presidential ticket led by São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and backed by Jair Bolsonaro. However, the group has always rejected the idea of one of the ex-president's sons as vice, citing the high rejection rate of the Bolsonaro surname.
Flávio Bolsonaro's (PL-RJ) pre-candidacy for the Planalto Palace sparked immediate friction. PP President and Senator Ciro Nogueira, a friend of Flávio, hinted that the bid is not viable. União Brasil leader Antonio Rueda stated that choosing Flávio would reinforce polarization and be electorally damaging. PSD's Gilberto Kassab reaffirmed his preference for Tarcísio or, alternatively, governors like Ratinho Jr. (Paraná) and Eduardo Leite (Rio Grande do Sul).
A Centrão dissidence, however, advocates avoiding confrontation with Flávio and seeking accommodation, possibly with him as vice. They argue that the Bolsonaro name alone cannot defeat Lula, but excluding the clan from the ticket also risks defeat for the right. An internal clash could pave the way for outsiders, akin to Pablo Marçal's role in the 2024 São Paulo mayoral race, where he nearly reached the runoff but Ricardo Nunes won with Bolsonaro's support.
For the dissidents, right-wing division would ease Lula's re-election. Meanwhile, Michelle Bolsonaro, PL Mulher leader and the clan's top electoral asset per polls, confided her fury to allies over not being consulted. 'She was not satisfied with how it all happened. She is the PL's main electoral asset and should have been heard,' said a close source.
