Chelsea's Champions League knockout fate to be decided against Napoli

Chelsea's position in the Champions League will be finalized on Wednesday night during their match against Napoli in Naples. A victory could secure a direct spot in the last-16, while a draw or loss would likely send them to the play-offs. The Blues currently sit eighth after a 1-0 win over Pafos last week.

Chelsea head into their final Champions League league phase match against Napoli with their destiny in their own hands. Under head coach Liam Rosenior, the team aims to qualify directly for the knockout stages' last-16 without entering the play-offs. Currently positioned eighth—the last direct qualification spot—Chelsea hold 13 points, level with Barcelona, Sporting CP, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, and Atalanta.

A win over Napoli would guarantee a top-eight finish, provided Chelsea match or better the goal differences of their rivals. PSG and Newcastle lead in sixth and seventh on superior goal difference, but their matchup against each other on the final day offers Chelsea an opportunity. As noted in UEFA's rules, the play-off draw pairs seeded teams (9th-16th) against unseeded ones (17th-24th), with seeded clubs hosting the second leg.

Should Chelsea draw, they would reach 14 points and depend on favorable results elsewhere, including the PSG-Newcastle clash and outcomes involving Inter Milan, Borussia Dortmund, and others. A loss keeps them on 13 points, requiring specific results like a draw between Inter and Dortmund, plus losses for Barcelona, Manchester City, and Juventus to avoid dropping into the play-offs on worse goal difference.

Regardless of the result, Chelsea have already secured at least a play-off berth as a seeded team, making it impossible for them to fall into the unseeded bracket due to head-to-head fixtures among rivals. The draw for the play-offs is set for Friday.

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Chelsea travel to Naples to face Napoli in Matchday 8 of the 2025/2026 UEFA Champions League league phase on January 28, 2026. The Blues hold the eighth and final automatic qualification spot for the last 16 after a 1-0 win over Pafos, while Napoli sit 25th and must avoid defeat to keep their hopes alive. Goal difference could prove decisive in the tight standings.

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