A study by a Norwegian researcher using fiscal data contradicts the idea that surtaxing large fortunes would cause only modest fiscal exile. This research highlights severe impacts on the tax base. It comes amid debates on the Zucman tax, recently rejected.
The Zucman tax, which has sparked heated discussions in recent months, proposes a 2% levy on patrimonies exceeding 100 million euros, including professional assets, for an estimated annual yield of 20 billion euros. Designed by economist Gabriel Zucman, it aims to ensure the wealthiest contribute proportionally as much, or more, than other households, while reducing wealth concentration and strengthening social cohesion.
Its proponents downplay fears of fiscal exile, claiming the consequences for the tax base and economy would be minor. However, a recent study by a Norwegian researcher, based on fiscal data, contradicts the widespread claim that surtaxing very high patrimonies would have only a 'modest' effect on fiscal exile.
This Norwegian research illustrates the potentially deadly effects of such a policy, demonstrating significant impacts on fortune mobility. The Zucman tax was rejected during the review of the 2026 finance bill, but it may return to debates in the future. The road to hell is paved with good intentions, the analysis notes, referring to this proposal that, despite its noble goals, risks causing massive capital flight.