Despite Renaissance's support for Pierre-Yves Bournazel, Rachida Dati maintains a comfortable lead in the first round of the 2026 Paris municipal elections, according to an Ifop-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro and Sud Radio. Credited with 26 to 28 percent of voting intentions, the Culture Minister outpaces her philippiste rival and the outgoing left. Paris's popular neighborhoods are emerging as key battlegrounds for the right-wing opposition.
Eighteen weeks before the March 2026 vote, the campaign for Paris mayor opens amid right-wing divisions. After months of hesitation, Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party has decided to back Pierre-Yves Bournazel from the Horizons group and close to Édouard Philippe, to the detriment of Rachida Dati, the natural candidate of the right and center. This decision marks a setback for the Culture Minister, who had appeared as the frontrunner until now.
Yet, an exclusive Ifop-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro and Sud Radio shows Dati still leading in the first round, with 26 to 28 percent of voting intentions. She significantly outpaces Bournazel, credited with 14 to 15 percent, as well as the outgoing left represented by Emmanuel Grégoire. « The candidacy of Rachida Dati has a catch-all side: she scores almost the same among executives as among workers », the study highlights.
The change in voting system, which will elect the new municipal team by direct vote of all Parisians rather than grand electors, could reshuffle the cards. Over 51 percent of residents live in the seven least favored arrondissements, mostly in the northeast of the capital. For the right-wing opposition, the challenge is to win over former Anne Hidalgo voters in these popular neighborhoods, or at least benefit from left-wing divisions. A Paris opposition party official sums up: « It's about getting former Hidalgo voters to vote for us ».
This dynamic underscores the challenges for the right, twenty-four years after the left's arrival at City Hall, in an election overshadowed by national turmoil.