About a month after the United States began military operations against Iran, some Republican organizers in battleground states say they continue to support President Donald Trump’s decision while warning that higher gasoline prices and rising farm input costs are fueling voter irritation ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Republican officials in several competitive states say the economic ripple effects of the conflict with Iran are becoming a harder sell to voters focused on affordability.
In Nevada, local GOP figures pointed to gasoline prices nearing $5 a gallon in parts of the state, while farm advocates in the Upper Midwest and Plains warned that fertilizer and fuel costs were climbing as spring planting approached. Industry analysts and economists have cautioned that even if tensions ease, energy markets can take time to settle because war-related “risk premiums” may persist.
Much of the market anxiety has centered on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global chokepoint for oil and other energy supplies. Recent reporting has described U.S. officials and advisers privately worrying that Iran could prolong economic pressure by disrupting traffic there, keeping crude prices elevated.
Some county-level Republican leaders said the price spikes are already complicating voter outreach. Todd Gillman, identified in the Politico report as chair of Michigan’s Monroe County Republican Party, raised questions about the operation’s long-term goal and said rising gas prices could influence midterm politics. Politico also reported that Craig Berland, the chair of the Arizona GOP’s Maricopa County organization, described canvassers encountering sharp blowback from some registered Republicans who blamed the war and the economy.
Farm groups have also pressed the administration to address mounting input costs. Agricultural outlets have reported that farmers heading into planting season without fertilizer purchases locked in are especially exposed to sudden price jumps, and that fuel and fertilizer costs surged after the Iran conflict began.
The White House has argued that energy prices will fall as the operation progresses. In a statement carried by MarketScreener, deputy press secretary Kush Desai said oil and gas prices would “drop rapidly” once the stated national security objectives of “Operation Epic Fury” are fully achieved.
Trump has continued to suggest the conflict will be resolved quickly in public remarks reported by Axios. But political analysts and investors have warned that if the fighting drags on and pump prices remain high, the economic impact could become a larger vulnerability for Republicans in November.
